'Ice Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely on Tuesday in Central and Eastern Ontario
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Following Monday's freezing rain that brought icy conditions across Central and Eastern Ontario, the risk of freezing drizzle persists through the overnight hours.
Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing drizzle advisories, warning that the slick conditions could extend into early Tuesday morning. With temperatures remaining near or just below the freezing mark overnight, untreated surfaces are expected to stay icy well into the morning.
As a result, it’s likely that many school boards, particularly in rural areas, will opt to cancel school bus services on Tuesday morning due to the hazardous road conditions.
The highest confidence for cancellations is in rural Eastern Ontario, where freezing drizzle is expected to still be occurring at the time decisions are made. These areas have been given a 90% chance of an “ice day.”
In the City of Ottawa, the likelihood is slightly lower at 75%, as the school board tends to be more conservative with cancellations in urban settings. However, the overnight icing should still be significant enough to prompt cancellations.
In Central Ontario, the Parry Sound and North Bay region has the highest probability of cancellations at 90%. The school board in this area is typically more weather-sensitive, and the lingering freezing drizzle almost guarantees that buses will be cancelled.
The situation becomes more uncertain for Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kawartha Lakes. Here, the freezing drizzle is expected to taper off shortly after midnight, but icy road conditions are likely to persist into the morning, with temperatures remaining near freezing.
After Monday’s decision to proceed with buses in some areas backfired for Trillium Lakelands—forcing adjustments to afternoon routes—the school board is likely to exercise more caution on Tuesday to avoid similar issues.
South and west of these regions, the chances of cancellations decrease significantly. Freezing drizzle is expected to end earlier in the evening, and temperatures are forecast to rise overnight, mitigating icy conditions. While cancellations cannot be entirely ruled out—particularly in Simcoe County—most other areas are unlikely to see disruptions to bus services on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
