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Lake effect snow and persistent snow squalls continue to show no signs of letting up, as they have spent much of Thursday burying portions of Muskoka, Parry Sound and the Grey Bruce region. This activity is expected to remain focused on these same areas overnight, keeping snowfall rates high and travel conditions dangerous.

By Friday morning, the orientation of the squalls is expected to shift slightly southward. This will allow the most intense lake effect bands to push into Simcoe County and southern portions of Grey Bruce, while still maintaining impacts across areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Given that many of these regions have already seen significant snowfall throughout the day, including numerous road closures and whiteout conditions, confidence is extremely high that school buses will remain off the roads. In fact, for parts of Grey Bruce, Huron and Perth counties, this stretch of lake effect snow means some students may not end up attending school at all this week, with weather conditions keeping buses parked since Monday.

The areas where school bus cancellations are essentially guaranteed include northern Huron and northern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, both North and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core snowbelt, where heavy snowfall, blowing snow and poor visibility will persist through Friday.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe Central weather zones, and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. For Simcoe County, confidence is slightly lower because the most intense squalls are not expected to push that far south until later in the morning, after bus decisions are typically made. In addition, the Simcoe County District School Board has shown a mixed track record when it comes to proactive cancellations. The other regions in this tier sit just outside the most intense lake effect zone, and while cancellations are likely, confidence is not high enough to place them in the highest category.

In the toss up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to Dufferin County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina under the York Region District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. These areas are close enough to the snowbelt that impacts are likely, but snowfall intensity and duration remain uncertain enough that cancellations are not a sure thing.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Hastings within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not expected to see significant snowfall overnight or Friday morning, but local road conditions could still be problematic in rural areas with blowing snow.

Outside of these regions, the chance of a snow day on Friday drops off quickly. Most of the worst conditions are expected to remain confined to the snowbelt, and elsewhere across Southern Ontario, school buses should be able to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.