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An Alberta Clipper is forecast to move across Southern Ontario late Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning. While overall snowfall totals are not expected to be extreme, generally in the 5 to 10 cm range, the timing of this system could still create travel headaches.

Snow is expected to fall overnight and linger into the early morning hours, which means roads may still be snow-covered during the Wednesday commute. On top of that, gusty winds may lead to areas of blowing snow, briefly reducing visibility and causing drifting on exposed rural routes.

Adding another layer of concern, lake effect snow is expected to redevelop through the day on Wednesday, particularly downwind of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. That could bring another round of locally heavier snow to traditional snowbelt communities, with squalls potentially ramping up into the afternoon.

Because of the overnight system snow and the potential for lake effect snow to continue into the day, there is a realistic chance that some school boards will opt to cancel buses on Wednesday.

That said, confidence is not especially high. Snowfall totals in the 5 to 10 cm range are often manageable, and in many cases would not automatically meet cancellation thresholds. Much will depend on how quickly road crews are able to clear routes overnight and whether snowfall ends before decisions are made early Wednesday morning. Small shifts in timing or totals could easily change the outcome.

Our highest confidence for cancellations is focused on areas expected to see both system snow and continued lake effect impacts. This includes all regions under the Bluewater District School Board, as well as Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. These areas sit closest to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and are more likely to see persistent blowing and drifting snow. Because of this combined risk, we have assigned a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations.

Our toss-up zone is fairly large, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding this event. We have assigned a 50 percent chance to all regions under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, Muskoka, Haliburton and North Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North and Central Hastings, North and Central Lennox and Addington, and North, Central and South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board.

These are predominantly rural school boards where even 5 to 10 cm of fresh snow, combined with wind and lingering lake effect, could be enough to tip the balance toward cancellations. However, with totals not expected to be particularly high, it could just as easily result in a normal school day.

We have assigned a 25 percent chance to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe Central and Simcoe South weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, Georgina under the York Region District School Board, North Durham under the Durham District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the remaining Tri-Board regions, the Upper Canada District School Board, the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, North Bay under the Near North District School Board, and all regions under the Rainbow District School Board.

These areas are expected to see lighter snowfall totals and fewer lake effect impacts. While we are leaning toward a regular school day in most of these regions, isolated surprise cancellations are still possible, particularly in parts of Eastern Ontario where snow may still be falling into the late morning.

Low to very low chances of cancellations extend across Deep Southwestern Ontario and the more urban school boards around the Greater Toronto Area, as well as Ottawa. Urban boards typically have a higher threshold for cancellations due to greater road treatment capacity and less reliance on long rural bus routes. At this point, this system does not appear strong enough to meet those higher urban thresholds.

Overall, Wednesday’s snow day potential will hinge on overnight cleanup and how quickly lake effect snow intensifies. While not a major storm by totals alone, the combination of timing, wind and localized squalls keeps the door open for scattered cancellations across parts of Southern Ontario.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.