Snow Squalls Threaten Parts of Ontario Tuesday Into Wednesday; Locally Up to 25cm of Snow Possible
/While Southern Ontario has largely been spared significant snowfall this season, the lake effect snow machine is in full swing around Georgian Bay, Lake Huron, and Superior. The week began with heavy bursts of snow east of Lake Huron and along Georgian Bay's southern shoreline.
The focus now shifts northward, as a westerly flow initiates snow squalls late Tuesday, impacting areas east of Georgian Bay and adding to the squalls east of Lake Superior from Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday afternoon, when the lake effect activity subsides, some areas could see 15-25cm of snow. These higher totals will be highly localized, depending on the squalls' exact positions. Even a slight wind shift could mean the difference between 0 or 25+ cm of snow.
Overnight into Wednesday, Parry Sound, Muskoka, and Northern Simcoe County will likely experience heavy snow and near-zero visibility. The snow bands could extend quite far inland, potentially affecting Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes, especially Wednesday morning. Later Wednesday morning, an intense snow band may move south, briefly hitting Grey-Bruce, Barrie, and northern GTA areas between 10 AM and 2 PM.
In the afternoon, a main squall off Lake Huron, near Port Elgin and Owen Sound, will stretch inland towards Shelburne and Orangeville. This is expected to dissipate by late afternoon but could reach parts of the GTA, possibly impacting the evening commute with a quick few centimetres of snow.
The heaviest snowfall, between 15-25cm, is anticipated between Bracebridge and Orillia, depending on the squall's location.
Data suggests multiple squalls may occur, with a northern squall from Britt to Burk’s Fall and southern squalls affecting Southern Muskoka and Northern Simcoe County.
With the intensity of the lake effect activity spread out between the multiple bands, this should moderate totals, preventing extreme accumulation in a small area. Consequently, larger area east of Georgian Bay will experience snow squall activity, with widespread totals of 10 to 25cm.
Around Lake Huron, significant squall activity isn't expected, except for a brief squall near Port Elgin and Owen Sound on Wednesday afternoon, bringing 5-10cm, locally up to 15cm.
Central Ontario, particularly around Lake Simcoe and the northern GTA, could see up to 5-10cm from Wednesday's squall. Other parts of Southern Ontario not on the map will likely receive less than 2cm.
East of Lake Superior, lake-effect snow will persist this evening into the overnight between Wawa and Sault Ste. Marie. The squalls are expected to weaken Wednesday morning as wind direction shifts, ending the lake-effect snow.
Similar localized snowfall of 15-25cm is expected by Wednesday afternoon in the Sault Ste. Marie and Wawa area. Accumulation will decrease quickly away from Lake Superior's shoreline, though Elliot Lake could see up to 5-10cm from the inland-reaching squalls tonight.