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Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Southern and Central Manitoba today as a low pressure system moves through the region. Daytime heating will build the energy for these storms and for them to likely become severe beginning later in the afternoon and into the evening.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to start in the late afternoon, around 3-5pm, particularly in the North Eastman region, but also in Eastman. The storms will likely become severe and will persist for a few hours in the region as they travel eastward into Ontario.

***Simulated Radar from the HRRR model showing 7pm CT and storms missing Winnipeg, Courtesy of Weatherbell.***

There is some disagreement between short-term weather models, but it is possible that severe thunderstorms could also develop stretching southwestward into the Red River Valley at roughly the same time. On the other hand, this development could end up beginning slightly later, around 6pm. In the second scenario, it’s possible that storms could form closer to the US border, resulting in Winnipeg getting missed by the severe weather.

The main risks from today’s severe thunderstorms are hail that could be as large as ping pong balls and strong wind gusts up to 90km/h. The chance of a tornado forming from these storms is low.