***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Southern Ontario has been gradually climbing out of the deep freeze earlier this week, which brought wind chills plunging into the -30s. This temporary reprieve has also slowed down the lake-effect snow machine.

However, a fresh surge of cold air over the next 24 hours will reignite the potential for snow squalls, particularly around Georgian Bay.

The good news is that this round of snow squall activity should be relatively short-lived. The squalls are expected to drift rather than anchor in one spot, which will help limit overall snowfall accumulation.

By the end of Sunday, areas along the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline and the Bruce Peninsula are forecast to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow.

Despite the shorter duration, these squalls could still create hazardous conditions. Wind gusts will likely lead to blowing snow, further reducing visibility on roads and making travel potentially dangerous.

Looking ahead, once the snow squalls subside late Sunday, attention shifts to a potentially significant windstorm developing across Southern Ontario starting Monday morning and lasting through the day.

Based on the latest data, wind gusts could approach or even exceed 100 km/h in some regions.

This powerful wind event will coincide with the arrival of a weather system bringing widespread snowfall to Southern Ontario beginning Monday afternoon.

While snowfall totals from the system are expected to range between 5 and 15 cm, the combination of strong wind gusts and falling snow could lead to blowing snow and, in some areas, blizzard conditions.

Driving conditions during Monday’s evening commute are expected to be very poor, with a high risk of power outages in areas that experience the strongest wind gusts.

Be prepared for possible heating disruptions if outages occur, as temperatures are forecast to drop sharply Monday night.

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The cold front responsible for these changing conditions will sweep through Southern Ontario on Saturday evening. While surface temperatures will remain relatively stable, colder air aloft will fuel the lake-effect snow machine.

As a result, heavier snow pockets may develop east of Georgian Bay, particularly in the Parry Sound and northern Muskoka regions, aided by lake enhancement.

Snow squalls could also form within this setup, bringing locally higher snowfall amounts. Current projections suggest 5 to 15 cm of accumulation by Wednesday morning, but totals could reach up to 20 or even 25 cm if conditions align perfectly.

High-resolution models show a significant snow squall developing over the southern Bruce Peninsula on Sunday morning.

This squall may extend across Georgian Bay, reaching Simcoe County and parts of Kawartha Lakes. It appears likely to linger for several hours between Orillia and Barrie, producing intense snowfall with rates approaching 5 cm per hour.

As the squall moves into Simcoe County during the afternoon, it is expected to weaken, leading to reduced snowfall rates. Additionally, weaker bands of lake-effect snow could develop off Lake Huron, potentially affecting areas like Kincardine, Hanover, and even parts of the Greater Toronto Area.

However, these bands are less certain and may only persist for a few hours on Sunday morning.

By Sunday evening, snow squall activity will likely shift northward into Muskoka and Parry Sound, intensifying briefly and delivering heavy snow to areas like Port Carling and Bracebridge.

Organized lake-effect snow activity should taper off by midnight, although minor flurries may linger into early Monday morning.

Because the squalls are expected to move frequently, snowfall will be spread across a wider area rather than concentrating in one location.

Most regions along the eastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Barrie, Muskoka, and Parry Sound, are forecast to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow by Sunday evening. This also applies to the Bruce Peninsula and areas like Owen Sound and Meaford.

Localized amounts exceeding 20 cm are possible, particularly in the corridor between Orillia and Barrie, where intense snow squalls are expected on Sunday morning. However, the current data does not support widespread totals in the 20-30 cm range.

Outside the primary snowbelt areas, regions such as Haliburton, Lindsay, Keswick, and Flesherton are likely to see 5 to 10 cm of snow, depending on the placement of snow squalls and how far inland they extend.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, snowfall amounts will generally be less than 5 cm, with most of the snow falling on Saturday evening and overnight.

The windstorm on Monday is expected to bring the strongest gusts to higher elevations, including the Dundalk Highlands, Collingwood, and Orangeville.

Wind gusts in these areas could reach 100 to 110 km/h, with similar strength expected along the escarpment, down into Hamilton, and across the Niagara region along the Lake Erie shoreline.

In Southwestern Ontario, gusts could exceed 90 km/h in areas east of Lake Huron, extending into Kitchener and the western Greater Toronto Area.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, gusts will likely range from 80 to 90 km/h, while Central and Eastern Ontario could see slightly weaker gusts of 70 to 80 km/h.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The addition of widespread snowfall on Monday afternoon and evening will exacerbate the impact of the wind. Blowing snow could create whiteout conditions, and some areas may experience blizzard-like conditions, especially in Southwestern Ontario.

While snowfall totals from this system aren’t expected to be excessive, with 5 to 15 cm possible across Southwestern and Central Ontario, the combination of snow and strong winds will make travel extremely challenging.

Further details on timing and accumulation specifics will be shared in a forecast update on Sunday. Stay tuned!