Larry To Make Landfall Late Friday on the Avalon Peninsula as a Category 1 Hurricane

Hurricane Larry is expected to finally make landfall this evening over the western Avalon Peninsula as a Category 1 storm. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire Avalon Peninsula while Tropical Storm warnings are in effect from the Bonavista Peninsula, through Clarenville and south to Connaigre and the Burin Peninsula. The greatest threats from this storm are high winds, large waves, coastal flooding, and periods of heavy rainfall with up to 50mm falling.

Winds will begin to increase as Larry approaches with peak winds expected in the overnight hours. The strongest wind gusts will be along the coastal areas of the Avalon, especially in Cape Race and along the southern shore. Gusts of up to 150km/h are possible there and the winds will decrease further north and inland, with gusts of up to 130km/h possible for the St John’s Metro area and Conception Bay South through to Carbonear. Wind gusts of 100-110km/h will occur from Bonavista and south through the Burin Peninsula and winds will decrease moving westward. Any loose objects should be secured or brought inside ahead of the storm. By Saturday afternoon, winds should begin to diminish as Larry tracks offshore to the north and weakens to post-tropical storm in the cooler waters.

Along with the winds, waves and storm surge are a major threat from this storm, especially south facing shores from McCallum to Cape Race as well as in Placentia Bay. High tide this evening in conjunction with the storm surge will result in significantly higher water levels. Waves heights of 10-14 metres will also be present and could cause damage along the coast and flooding in coastal communities.

It is likely that some communities may lose power due to this storm and it is not too late to put together an emergency kit. Some important things to have on hand include:

• Water

• Non-perishable foods

• First Aid kit

• Battery powered flashlight and extra batteries

• Candles and matches/lighter

• Prescription medications and equipment

• Pet food and supplies

• Extra gas for generators

Please remember that if you use a generator, DO NOT operate inside your home, garage, or shed.

Stay safe and we will be posting updates this evening as the storm approaches.

Post-Tropical Hurricane Teddy Continues.... Worst Conditions Between Now and 6am

Updated: September 23, 2020 @ 12:35 AM

Valid : September 23, 2020 @ 1 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

The Center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy with sustained winds of 85 mph making it a Post-Tropical Hurricane force system as a category 1.

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST... ...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

The Conditions will get worst from here, There is Tropical Storm force winds covering all of Nova Scotia, PEI, Much of NB, and now entering Southern Newfoundland and Saint Pierre.

There is also Hurricane force winds just right off the coast near Shelburne, With the current track It seems more and more likely that Hurricane force winds will move in parts of Shelburne county.

Teddy is 305 km S of Halifax & 750 km SSW of Port Aux Basques.

Sustained winds are at 85 mph and still moving North

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia

* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia

* Magdalen Islands Quebec

* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force

winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km). Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m).

Strong winds, Heavy rain, Coastal flooding, Storm surge will intensify through the night and become increasingly Dangerous and Life Threatening along the coast.

Life threatening Rip Currents and Gigantic swells and waves continue for days.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy sets eyes on Newfoundland

Updated: September 22, 2020 @ 11PM

Valid: September 22, 2020 @ 11 PM

Forecasters: James Follette & Alannah Franks

What was once Hurricane Teddy is now a monster sized and very powerful Post-Tropical Cyclone is currently pummeling the Atlantic Canada with Tropical Storm conditions in Nova Scotia, PEI, New Brunswick and Southern Maine.

As of 9 PM, Tropical Storm conditions have started moving into Port-Aux Basques and St. Pierre.

The Track is expected to take it over Cape Breton and then stay just offshore of Western Newfoundland as a strong Post Tropical Storm.

Heavy flooding rain is expected over the Avalon and Burin Peninsula as well as all of Southern Newfoundland through Port-Aux Basques and up to Clarenville. the least rainfall will be in Northern and Western Newfoundland with 15 to 30 mm, Up to 75 mm can fall in Eastern Newfoundland and up to 50 mm in Southern.

As for winds now, Winds will be the strongest in the West and the lightest in the East.

Winds in SW will be as high as 110 km/h, much of Western and Central will see Gusts up to 90 km/h, then further away, Northern Newfoundland, only up to 70 km/h and wide swath of up to 80 km/h for the Avalon, Burin Peninsula, Clarenville, Gander, GFW, Deer Lake, Corner Brook all will see Gusts up to 80 km/h.

With the Heavy rain and high winds, Scattered to widespread power outages is possible, The storm will arrive on Wednesday and last through Thursday.

Tropical Storm warnings are already in effect for South Western Newfoundland, large waves and rip currents, Storm surge is also expected.

Widespread Power Outages Likely as Teddy Quickly Approaches

Updated: September 22nd, 2020 @ 9:45 AM

Valid: September 22nd, 2020 @ 10 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Latest thoughts on Power Outages:

A wide swath of wide spread power outages are very likely from Yarmouth to Sydney. We have possible and likely power outages for Western NS.

Power outages will be mainly caused by falling trees & branches, snapping power poles, high winds, and heavy rain.

Power outages could last a few to several days, similar to Hurricane Juan and Tropical Storm Arthur.

Be safe, everyone!

Teddy To Pack a Punch Like Arthur or Juan! Down to Only Hours Before The Rain Arrives!

Updated: September 22, 2020 @ 9:16 AM

Valid: September 22, 2020 @ 9 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Latest update and the potential impact threat!

Once again, the coastal areas are the ones that are at most risk for extreme impacts from storm surge, flooding rains, Tropical Storm to Hurricane force winds, rip currents, pounding surf affecting the beach & coastal erosion. This will be the area that will be a mess!

Further inland you go, the lesser the impacts. I'm thinking Western NS will only see a Slight to Moderate impact from heavy rain and gusty winds. Should not as bad as rest of the province but will be enough to cause some problems and power outages.

Southern Nova Scotia will see significant impacts. You're going to see those giant waves! Storm surge where it will be 50cm higher than normal, rip currents, and pounding surf. Those waves could be as high as 10-15 metres! And to top it off, heavy rains of possibly 40-50 mm in some places, which would even further flooding! And last but not least, you have the astronomically high tide!!

So flooding is one of the biggest concerns in that region, along with storm surge.

Then, you have the winds... If you’re closer to the track you will be in middle of the Tropical Storm force winds. Winds in these areas will gust as high as 105 to even 110 km/h, especially for towns in the Shelburne area, Clark's Harbour, Barrington Passage, and all the small islands and capes. They will be the ones to be beaten to a pulp more than any other towns in the South Shores.

Look for widespread power outages because there is still lots of foliage. The trees are going to be pressured and pushed really hard. They could fall and land on houses, cars, power lines and power lines could snap.

The only reason I didn’t put you on the Extreme Threat level is because of the winds should not reach over 110 km/h.

Be safe, everyone!

Hurricane Teddy to slam province with Tropical Storm force winds!

Updated: September 22nd, 2020 @ 7:45 AM

Valid: September 22nd, 2020 @ 8 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Here are the latest Peak Wind Gusts expected from Teddy.

Tropical Storm Force winds are winds 60 and above, and that will for sure be the case! however, lesser winds to the West where Gusts of only up to 80 km/h.

Closer to the coast, winds Gusting between 80 and 100 km/h, highest winds seems to be in NE Cape Breton where wind Gusts of 110+ is expected, and some models even suggest Gusts of near 130 km/h. Sustained winds in that area will be 90-100 km/h! These are winds that would create some serious wind damage, If there was any place to get the most damage and trees down it would very likely be North Eastern Cape Breton.

I am expecting some wind damage all along the coast, and trees and power lines likely be falling down as well along the coast.

~ James

The Ghost Of Paulette, comes back from the dead!

Updated: September 22, 2020 @ 12:45 AM

Valid: September 22, 2020 @ 6 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

A new Tropical Storm has developed!!! Everyone, let’s welcome back Tropical Storm Paulette to the Maury show!

This is Paulette's 2nd appearance in the tropics! On the first appearance Paulette was a Storm that Got Angry at Bermuda and have pummeled them as a Hurricane. Only to find out later on that The cold north Atlantic waters was NOT the perfect water father!

She died, and now she is back! and she says that she think that the Azores is responsible!

So everyone Welcome back Paulette!!!

Paulette is a 60 MPH small storm heading East-North East at a speedy 16 mph.

Paulette is threatening the Azores, for potential landfall on Friday as a Tropical Depression, However there are other models that put Paulette to become stronger, and move south so we’ll watch her for a bit but she is no threat to any land mass in this country!

September 21 11PM Update on Hurricane Teddy & it's race towards Nova Scotia

Updated: September 21 @ 11:55 PM

Valid: September 22 @ 12:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Evening! Here is the latest on the track and data on Teddy.

First here is what you need to know about Hurricane Teddy current data.

Hurricane Teddy is continuing to move Northward away from Bermuda and increasing in speed, now at a speedy 26 mph.

Teddy is a Category 1 Hurricane with 90 mph winds and is still expected to strengthen Tonight Before weakening again as it nears landfall in Nova Scotia.

Now to Latest track forecast. Teddy is expected to first make landfall over Marie Joseph, then cross through St. Mary's & Goshen then St. Andrew's between Antigonish and Heatherton. all through the day on Tuesday Evening into Wednesday.

After that it will cross over waters between PEI and Cape Breton as a Post-Tropical Storm.

Teddy should make landfall as a Post-Tropical Hurricane with Category 1 winds of 80 mph. There is still a slight chance though that Teddy could maintain Hurricane status just before making landfall.

Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Conditions are expected all over the province, and Tropical Storm Warnings and watches are in place.

There is also Storm Surge warnings, Rainfall warnings & Wind warnings.

If you have not done so yet, to prepare for the storm, you will only have a few hours in the morning to do so before Teddy rushes in.

Storm drains should be cleared, Vulnerable trees cut down, patio furniture, Trampolines, Garbage bins and other objects brought inside before noon Tomorrow!

Should also have your storm plan in place and ready, Generators, food, and chargers ready in case of Power outages.

Storm kits, Emergency plans, Evacuation plans should be ready and viewed over.

Instant Weather Meteorologists and Forecasters will continue to keep you posted through out the storm coverage before, during and after the storm.

Stay safe! and Hunker down, because we have another Arthur on our footsteps!

Teddy to bring risk of Isolated Severe Thunderstorms to the province, along with Tropical Storm Conditions

Updated: September 21st, 2020 @ 9PM

Valid: September 21st, 2020 @ 9 PM

Forecaster: James Follette

While There are Storm surge warnings, Flood warnings, Wind warnings, Tropical Storm watches and warnings all in effect ahead of Hurricane Teddy that is ready to bare down on Nova Scotia arriving Tomorrow morning with rain then wind and the thick of it in the Evening and Overnight hours.

Along with the Stormy conditions, there will also be a risk of some Isolated severe Thunderstorms.

For much of Nova Scotia, there will be a risk of Non-Severe Thunderstorms, however where the storm center will cross, there is more energy, and so there could be a few ISOLATED Severe thunder storms that could produce some large hail, Frequent Cloud to ground lightning, Strong wind Gusts on top of the Tropical Storm Force winds.

Teddy weakens to Category 2 with 105 mph winds, still on course to make direct hit on Nova Scotia

Brief Tropical Update # 1 Issued @ 11:23 AM

Valid @ 12:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

The latest update in from the NHC as of 8 AM, is that Hurricane Teddy has weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 105 mph or 169 km/h. Pressure has also risen from 958 to 964mb.

The storm has also made a more of a jog towards the West more but still going in a NW direction to make the path now a WNW, with no change in speed at 12 mph.

Despite the weakening of the system and a more westerly track, Teddy’s track has little to no change to it and Teddy is still on course to make landfall in Nova Scotia on Wednesday somewhere between Northern NS and Cape Breton.

The wind Radii ( Wind Field) still puts Tropical Storm force winds (60km/h SUSTAINED, not Gust) as far as Central New Brunswick, PEI, & Maine as shown in the graphic. Strong Tropical Storm Force winds ( 90 km/h or greater Sustained) is expected to occur over much of Nova Scotia from Cape Breton to Clark’s Harbour.

Western NS as of the latest update looks to escape the Strong Tropical Storm Force winds. This includes Yarmouth County, Digby County and the rest of Western NS. Winds in these area may not be Strong Tropical Storm Force, but they will still be Tropical Storm Force and so Wind Damage is still expected. Winds will be sustained of 60+ km/h with Gusts to 100 km/h.

Areas in Orange who will see Strong Tropical Storm Force will see Sustained winds at nearly 100 km/h with Gusts at Hurricane force potentially between 120 and 140 km/h.

Life Threatening Rip currents and Surf will continue to increase through the next several days, and the waters will be extremely dangerous all of next week, due to 2 other Tropical systems and a developing system to the North and the size of Teddy.

Very large waves will also increase in magnitude today and into Wednesday and Thursday.

Any boaters or fisherman, ship vessels are asked to take extreme caution as Hurricane conditions will continue in the open waters and for boaters closer to the coast, it’s highly recommended that you secure your boat Very tightly, or bring it on land.

• As mentioned earlier, this is the time to prepare now as early as you can before Tuesday morning.

• Cut down old weak trees that are capable of falling on wires, cars or houses

• Trees with foliage being battered by Tropical Storm Force winds of 60+ sustained and 100 km/h Gust has the highest chance of breaking or falling down on wires, and with this said we expect several numerous trees down and lot’s of power outages similar to Tropical Storm Arthur.

• Stock up on small food items for a few days incase of power outages

• In case of power, be best to buy a Generator if don’t have one

• Go through your Emergency storm kit

• Go through your Hurricane Aid Kit

• Go Through your Evacuations Hurricane Plan ( for those living right near the water)

• BE SURE to clean the storm drains! so that water can flow freely down the storm drain to reduce the threat of flooding.

• Be sure to have a weather radio and to keep checking regularly for new updates!

• Check in on your family, friends and elders

Hurricane Teddy Update #1

Forecast Updated at September 20th @ 10:20 AM

Forecast Valid September 20th @ 11 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good Sunday Morning! This is Instant Weather Tropical Update #1 on Hurricane Teddy as it heads for Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.

As of the 5 AM update on Hurricane Teddy, Winds have dropped to now 105 MPH making it a Strong Category 2 Hurricane and it is now jogging to the WNW at 12 MPH and is expected to turn more Northward later today. The pressure has risen substantially to 964mb up from 958 just 3 hours ago.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night.

All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane.

We now know more on the highest most likely impacts it will have on the Province of Nova Scotia and the rest of Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane Teddy’s Impacts On Nova Scotia

Highest threat of Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm conditions are Flooding & Wind damage. Where in many areas of the province sustained Tropical Storm force winds of 60-70 km/h will Gust up to 100-110 km/h and with lot’s of foliage on the trees, that will put more stress on the trees and will then break and/or fall, and these can fall on cars, power lines creating power outages. But also flying debris such as roof shingles, house sidings, signs, flower pots, Patio furniture, trampolines the biggest one!.

If you have any small objects that are light that can blow away and create damage, you have until Tuesday Morning to get it done! Things that should be brought in or taken down includes Flower pots, Patio furniture, Trampolines, etc.

Along with objects, it is very important that you cut down any potential tree branches that are old or look weak that has the potential too fall down on the house, or car, this can be done up until Monday Night.

After noon time on Tuesday, time will be up and all bets are off, as Tropical Storm force winds arrive shortly after noon hour, Rain at times heavy begin over Eastern NS and South Shores Tuesday late Morning between 9 and 11 AM.

The next threat then is the flooding, which will be a very big threat for much of Eastern NS and Northern NS with up to 100 mm is expected, further South the amounts are less where only up to 30 mm will fall regardless of how much rain falls, torrential tropical downpours can cause flash flooding, as well as Street, coastal and urban flooding. It is very important that you clean up the storm drains on your street next to you, flooding becomes fast all the time when storm drains are clogged and water cant fall down. This must be done before Tomorrow Night.

Other types of flooding includes Coastal flooding, low lying areas near the water can get severe flooding from Storm surge, and to make things worst is that this storm comes on a night of Astronomical High Tide. Big waves of over 12ft, giant surfs, storm surge and the high heavy rain amounts will cause extreme flooding threats for communities near the water all up and down the coast of Nova Scotia, with exception to Bay of Fundy where land interaction and opposite wind direction will create a lower flooding threat.

Beach erosion is also very likely along all ocean facing Beaches.

Tornadoes… As with all Tropical Cyclones, there is the risk of Tornadoes because of the circulation. how ever the threat for Tornadoes are very low as there will not be much convection as storm weakens.

Hurricane Teddy Wind Field

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

The current track of Teddy puts it heading for extreme Eastern Cape Breton, around Sydney. However as the Hurricane tracks North on it’s way over the next few days and transitions to Post-Tropical the Wind Radii begins to expand, so even though the center of storm may be far offshore, the Tropical Storm Force winds and Tropical Storm conditions will spread all through Southern, South Shores and Western Nova Scotia beginning Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Night.

For Northern Nova Scotia & Cape Breton, The storm will pass very close and will intensify just a little, producing Hurricane force winds that may reach the area, never the less the area will still see Tropical Storm force winds sustained.

Power outages very likely!

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

Wide spread Outages can be expected through Southern Shores, Northern NS, & Eastern Cape Breton.

Outages that are likely or very likely covers a big area of the province. much of Tri-Counties up through Halifax and Northern NS into New Glascow as well as Western Cape Breton, for Eastern NS, and parts of Kings and Annapolis Valley will see some possible Outages through Wednesday Night.

Hurricane Teddy Rainfall Intensity Forecast

Rain will start Early to Mid Tuesday morning, Moderate rain will come from the East, a more lighter rainfall for Western side of the province, as well Cape Breton.

By the time we get into the Evening and Overnight hours, we’ll see Moderate to Heavy rain much of province except for Northern and Cape Breton, where very Heavy rainfall is expected, look at 20+ mm/hr rates

By Wednesday, the rain and heavy rain continues especially if in Eastern, Central & Northern parts of the province. By time we are at mid day Wednesday we will have very heavy rain that have rates of 30+ mm/hr, this is where you 70-100+ mm totals come from.

By Wednesday Evening into the Overnight, much of the province will see the rain shut off, however some light to Moderate rain continues over Western Cape Breton from Antigonish to Sydney.

As the system pulls away heading for the Island of Newfoundland, still will be a few left over showers over Eastern Cape Breton.

Thunder Storms Likely Tuesday & Wednesday!

Now with Heavy rain, and a lot of Energy and this is a tropical System.. How about Thunderstorms? yup they’re a possibility!

On Tuesday, the entire province has a Isolated Severe risk of Severe Thunderstorms.

Now on Wednesday, as the storm pulls North, we’ll see a Severe risk of Thunder storms and Isolated in Cape Breton!

Teddy’s Impacts!

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

The biggest impacts will be in Cape Breton as that is where the center will track. but much of the province will see a big impact! From Yarmouth to Antigonish expect Significant Impact, This also includes Digby and Greenwood!

Then Kentville, Amherst, New Glascow, Truro will a lesser impact, but still a Moderate Impact to winds and rain, but not so much storm surge.

Teddy’s Rainfall Through Thursday Morning.

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

For Southern, Southern Shores, Annapolis Valley, Kings counties, much of Eastern Cape Breton. You will see the least amount of rain, do to the fast speed, so a wind issue rather than rain. However that is not to say you won’t get anything!! 15 to 30 mm is in the forecast, and there could be some local amounts of 30-40 mm . For Halifax, Halifax Metro, Truro, Amherst. Look at 25 to 50 mm with locally 50 to 70 mm. This is where the Flooding threat is expected. For New Glascow and and surrounding areas, 40 to as much as 75 mm! and you could have locally some amounts approaching 100 mm. Antigonish and remaining areas, look for the heaviest rain, to create severe flood risk, 75 to 125 mm of rainfall with locally some amounts approaching 125 mm.

Teddy’s Winds Through Thursday

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

A wide swath of the province will see winds between 80 and 100 km/h Gusts. Cape Breton is exception, where they will see the most winds! of Winds Gusting to 110+ km/h , least winds can be found in Western sections such as East of Kentville, Truro, Kentville. winds Gusting 80 to 95 km/h which is Tropical Storm force, anything over 60 km/h is Tropical Storm force.

Teddy’s Hazards

Damaging Wind risk is fairly high! along with Severe weather and Travel can be quite Significant. Flood risk is Moderate to High and the Confidence on the forecast is a bit better now at 75-100%, which is pretty good, however still a few things needs watching that can change the system.

What to do! and How to Prepare!

The Storm is now only about 48 hours away, and with the very high likely hood of a dangerous direct impact on the province. It’s time to prepare! and Go over the Emergency Preparations

What to do before the Hurricane arrives!:

• Get water, Bread, can food that will last up to 3 days.

• Buy a Generator!

• take down old, weak large tree branches that has potential to fall down on your car or house.

• clean up near the storm drains, make sure there is plenty of room for the water to flow down.

  What to Have during the storm and what to go over:

• . A flash light

• Batteries

• Weather Radio

• canned food

• An emergency kit

• Gas ready in car

• Money

• Generator for long lasting Power Outages

You Should be going over the Hurricane kit and Emergency plan with the family.

• Go over what to do before, During & After the Hurricane or Tropical Storm.

• Have a Emergency Aid kit! and go over the items with the Family

• Have an Evacuation Hurricane Plan!! For those living near the coast, where severe flooding and beach erosion is very likely, Coastal evacuations may be needed, Go over what to do in the case of an evacuation

  AND MOST OF ALL….

• Stay Calm!!!

• Pandemic rules still apply!!

• Keep a distance of 6ft!

• Wear a Mask!!

• Wash your hands frequently!

Be Safe! and have a great Sunday Morning

• Next Update is at 4 PM