More Record Heat Continues For The weekend, Then A BIG Change!

Updated: October 3rd,2020 @ 2:30 AM

Valid: October 3rd, 2020 @ 4:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

It was another record breaking day for Temperatures as the continued late summer warmth persists to end the first week of October, Looks to go into the first weekend of October before finally giving up and going to near or below normal temperatures.

Here is a look at some records that were broken on Friday, October 2nd.

Merritt…….. Old record: 18.3 degrees C from 2016, New record: 25.1 degrees C. Average is 17 degrees C

Hope……….. Old record: 22.6 degrees C from 2004, New record: 25.1 degrees C. Average is 16 degrees C

Squamish… Old record: 24.1 degrees C from 1993, New record: 25.2 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Bella Coola. Old record: 23.6 degrees C from 1988, New record: 23.9 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Clinton……… Old record: 23.0 degrees C from 2003, New record: 23.7 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Bella Bella… Old record: 16.8 degrees C from 2016, New record: 21.8 degrees C. Average is 14 degrees C

Prince Rupert Old record: 17.9 degrees C from 2017, New record: 20.2 degrees C. Average is 13 degrees C

Sandspit……. Old record: 15.7 degrees C from 2002, New record: 16.7 degrees C. Average is 13 degrees C

These are just a sample of many records broken on Friday, several towns as warm as 10 to 15 degrees above average. The hot spot in the province Friday was Princeton at 26 degrees C, sadly not a record as the record for Friday was a sizzling 29 degrees from 1975.

These are the max high temperatures from Yesterday (Friday), a small swath of temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range which is in red, but check out the orange, A very large swath of 20 to 25 degree temperatures which is not uncommon for early October but is at same time, not usual. Those warm temperatures even spread fairly far north of the province where records were also broken.

The Large ridge pumping up the very warm conditions will begin to start flattening out as early as Later today and will persist through the weekend, This will allow for some more unsettled weather and much cooler air to flow down. However the big change where we see some unsettled and very chilly air is not until we get into the latter part of next week towards Thanksgiving weekend and into Thanksgiving.

Even if it will be cooler, Temperatures look to still be almost 5 degrees above normal over the next 2 weeks with day time highs in the 15 to 20 range. Where as by near Thanksgiving, the Average high is between 10 and 15 degrees.

If you’re those kind of people who love this heat, wanting to keep enjoying it and still go to the beach or pool and get a tan, Then you still have the weekend to do so before it becomes a bit cool for the water and tanning.

Hazy & Smokey Skies to Continue Through The Weekend

Updated: October. 3rd, 2020 @ 12:30 AM

Valid: October 3rd, 2020 @ 2:30 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

It was once again another hazy and Smokey day over much of Southern and Central portions of British Columbia as high pressure continues to dominate the province and will continue to do so as the large ridge will continue to build and head further North. This will allow for not only warmer & more humid conditions, but also for an increase in smoke & Haze to flow further over the province from the SW wind allowing smoke from the three States currently burning; Oregon, Washington, & California to cross the border.

The smoke and haze will not be as nearly as bad as the huge blanket of toxic smoke over the province in early Septembe but there will be some unhealthy air conditions over a good portion of Southern and Central BC. The AQI ( Air Quality Index) will be around Low to Moderate for many areas with only one area making it to level 6, which is the high-end of Moderate. Everypne else will be Low to Moderate, between 2 and 4.

While it will be a fairly warm and very dry weekend, there is a system that looks to bring some unsettled weather in the form of showers and much cooler temperatures over parts of Vancouver Island from Nanaimo to Campbell Island. This will reduce, if not, clear all the haze and smoke by Sunday.

Unfortunately, the dry weather will look to stretch into much of the week for Vancouver and Central & Interior desert areas. There could also be a few showers Sunday late day for extreme northern parts.

There is a pattern change coming after the weekend that will bring much cooler temperatures to the province as a series of Low pressures will flatten the jet stream, allowing for cooler Canadian air from the North to flow down. There is also some suggestions from the models that many parts of the province could see some first snow of the season by later on in the new week.

For those with medical and breathing problemssuch as Asthma and Respiratory problems should take some extra caution if going out by limiting the time out in the haze & smoke. Please wear a mask and reduce outdoor exercise.

Also, you should try and stay indoors and have the Air Conditioner on. If you know anyone that is prone to complications from smoke and is in poor health, please check on them frequently and help keep them safe. If experiencing heavy coughing, asthmatic like problems, throat irritation, etc., please go to the ER.

The smoke and haze should exit the whole province by Monday or Tuesday as the more unsettled and cooler air moves in.

Teddy To Pack a Punch Like Arthur or Juan! Down to Only Hours Before The Rain Arrives!

Updated: September 22, 2020 @ 9:16 AM

Valid: September 22, 2020 @ 9 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Latest update and the potential impact threat!

Once again, the coastal areas are the ones that are at most risk for extreme impacts from storm surge, flooding rains, Tropical Storm to Hurricane force winds, rip currents, pounding surf affecting the beach & coastal erosion. This will be the area that will be a mess!

Further inland you go, the lesser the impacts. I'm thinking Western NS will only see a Slight to Moderate impact from heavy rain and gusty winds. Should not as bad as rest of the province but will be enough to cause some problems and power outages.

Southern Nova Scotia will see significant impacts. You're going to see those giant waves! Storm surge where it will be 50cm higher than normal, rip currents, and pounding surf. Those waves could be as high as 10-15 metres! And to top it off, heavy rains of possibly 40-50 mm in some places, which would even further flooding! And last but not least, you have the astronomically high tide!!

So flooding is one of the biggest concerns in that region, along with storm surge.

Then, you have the winds... If you’re closer to the track you will be in middle of the Tropical Storm force winds. Winds in these areas will gust as high as 105 to even 110 km/h, especially for towns in the Shelburne area, Clark's Harbour, Barrington Passage, and all the small islands and capes. They will be the ones to be beaten to a pulp more than any other towns in the South Shores.

Look for widespread power outages because there is still lots of foliage. The trees are going to be pressured and pushed really hard. They could fall and land on houses, cars, power lines and power lines could snap.

The only reason I didn’t put you on the Extreme Threat level is because of the winds should not reach over 110 km/h.

Be safe, everyone!

Hurricane Teddy to slam province with Tropical Storm force winds!

Updated: September 22nd, 2020 @ 7:45 AM

Valid: September 22nd, 2020 @ 8 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Here are the latest Peak Wind Gusts expected from Teddy.

Tropical Storm Force winds are winds 60 and above, and that will for sure be the case! however, lesser winds to the West where Gusts of only up to 80 km/h.

Closer to the coast, winds Gusting between 80 and 100 km/h, highest winds seems to be in NE Cape Breton where wind Gusts of 110+ is expected, and some models even suggest Gusts of near 130 km/h. Sustained winds in that area will be 90-100 km/h! These are winds that would create some serious wind damage, If there was any place to get the most damage and trees down it would very likely be North Eastern Cape Breton.

I am expecting some wind damage all along the coast, and trees and power lines likely be falling down as well along the coast.

~ James

September 21 11PM Update on Hurricane Teddy & it's race towards Nova Scotia

Updated: September 21 @ 11:55 PM

Valid: September 22 @ 12:00 AM

Forecaster: James Follette

Good Evening! Here is the latest on the track and data on Teddy.

First here is what you need to know about Hurricane Teddy current data.

Hurricane Teddy is continuing to move Northward away from Bermuda and increasing in speed, now at a speedy 26 mph.

Teddy is a Category 1 Hurricane with 90 mph winds and is still expected to strengthen Tonight Before weakening again as it nears landfall in Nova Scotia.

Now to Latest track forecast. Teddy is expected to first make landfall over Marie Joseph, then cross through St. Mary's & Goshen then St. Andrew's between Antigonish and Heatherton. all through the day on Tuesday Evening into Wednesday.

After that it will cross over waters between PEI and Cape Breton as a Post-Tropical Storm.

Teddy should make landfall as a Post-Tropical Hurricane with Category 1 winds of 80 mph. There is still a slight chance though that Teddy could maintain Hurricane status just before making landfall.

Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Conditions are expected all over the province, and Tropical Storm Warnings and watches are in place.

There is also Storm Surge warnings, Rainfall warnings & Wind warnings.

If you have not done so yet, to prepare for the storm, you will only have a few hours in the morning to do so before Teddy rushes in.

Storm drains should be cleared, Vulnerable trees cut down, patio furniture, Trampolines, Garbage bins and other objects brought inside before noon Tomorrow!

Should also have your storm plan in place and ready, Generators, food, and chargers ready in case of Power outages.

Storm kits, Emergency plans, Evacuation plans should be ready and viewed over.

Instant Weather Meteorologists and Forecasters will continue to keep you posted through out the storm coverage before, during and after the storm.

Stay safe! and Hunker down, because we have another Arthur on our footsteps!

Hurricane Teddy Update #1

Forecast Updated at September 20th @ 10:20 AM

Forecast Valid September 20th @ 11 AM

Forecaster: James Follett

Good Sunday Morning! This is Instant Weather Tropical Update #1 on Hurricane Teddy as it heads for Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.

As of the 5 AM update on Hurricane Teddy, Winds have dropped to now 105 MPH making it a Strong Category 2 Hurricane and it is now jogging to the WNW at 12 MPH and is expected to turn more Northward later today. The pressure has risen substantially to 964mb up from 958 just 3 hours ago.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night.

All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane.

We now know more on the highest most likely impacts it will have on the Province of Nova Scotia and the rest of Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane Teddy’s Impacts On Nova Scotia

Highest threat of Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm conditions are Flooding & Wind damage. Where in many areas of the province sustained Tropical Storm force winds of 60-70 km/h will Gust up to 100-110 km/h and with lot’s of foliage on the trees, that will put more stress on the trees and will then break and/or fall, and these can fall on cars, power lines creating power outages. But also flying debris such as roof shingles, house sidings, signs, flower pots, Patio furniture, trampolines the biggest one!.

If you have any small objects that are light that can blow away and create damage, you have until Tuesday Morning to get it done! Things that should be brought in or taken down includes Flower pots, Patio furniture, Trampolines, etc.

Along with objects, it is very important that you cut down any potential tree branches that are old or look weak that has the potential too fall down on the house, or car, this can be done up until Monday Night.

After noon time on Tuesday, time will be up and all bets are off, as Tropical Storm force winds arrive shortly after noon hour, Rain at times heavy begin over Eastern NS and South Shores Tuesday late Morning between 9 and 11 AM.

The next threat then is the flooding, which will be a very big threat for much of Eastern NS and Northern NS with up to 100 mm is expected, further South the amounts are less where only up to 30 mm will fall regardless of how much rain falls, torrential tropical downpours can cause flash flooding, as well as Street, coastal and urban flooding. It is very important that you clean up the storm drains on your street next to you, flooding becomes fast all the time when storm drains are clogged and water cant fall down. This must be done before Tomorrow Night.

Other types of flooding includes Coastal flooding, low lying areas near the water can get severe flooding from Storm surge, and to make things worst is that this storm comes on a night of Astronomical High Tide. Big waves of over 12ft, giant surfs, storm surge and the high heavy rain amounts will cause extreme flooding threats for communities near the water all up and down the coast of Nova Scotia, with exception to Bay of Fundy where land interaction and opposite wind direction will create a lower flooding threat.

Beach erosion is also very likely along all ocean facing Beaches.

Tornadoes… As with all Tropical Cyclones, there is the risk of Tornadoes because of the circulation. how ever the threat for Tornadoes are very low as there will not be much convection as storm weakens.

Hurricane Teddy Wind Field

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

The current track of Teddy puts it heading for extreme Eastern Cape Breton, around Sydney. However as the Hurricane tracks North on it’s way over the next few days and transitions to Post-Tropical the Wind Radii begins to expand, so even though the center of storm may be far offshore, the Tropical Storm Force winds and Tropical Storm conditions will spread all through Southern, South Shores and Western Nova Scotia beginning Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Night.

For Northern Nova Scotia & Cape Breton, The storm will pass very close and will intensify just a little, producing Hurricane force winds that may reach the area, never the less the area will still see Tropical Storm force winds sustained.

Power outages very likely!

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

Wide spread Outages can be expected through Southern Shores, Northern NS, & Eastern Cape Breton.

Outages that are likely or very likely covers a big area of the province. much of Tri-Counties up through Halifax and Northern NS into New Glascow as well as Western Cape Breton, for Eastern NS, and parts of Kings and Annapolis Valley will see some possible Outages through Wednesday Night.

Hurricane Teddy Rainfall Intensity Forecast

Rain will start Early to Mid Tuesday morning, Moderate rain will come from the East, a more lighter rainfall for Western side of the province, as well Cape Breton.

By the time we get into the Evening and Overnight hours, we’ll see Moderate to Heavy rain much of province except for Northern and Cape Breton, where very Heavy rainfall is expected, look at 20+ mm/hr rates

By Wednesday, the rain and heavy rain continues especially if in Eastern, Central & Northern parts of the province. By time we are at mid day Wednesday we will have very heavy rain that have rates of 30+ mm/hr, this is where you 70-100+ mm totals come from.

By Wednesday Evening into the Overnight, much of the province will see the rain shut off, however some light to Moderate rain continues over Western Cape Breton from Antigonish to Sydney.

As the system pulls away heading for the Island of Newfoundland, still will be a few left over showers over Eastern Cape Breton.

Thunder Storms Likely Tuesday & Wednesday!

Now with Heavy rain, and a lot of Energy and this is a tropical System.. How about Thunderstorms? yup they’re a possibility!

On Tuesday, the entire province has a Isolated Severe risk of Severe Thunderstorms.

Now on Wednesday, as the storm pulls North, we’ll see a Severe risk of Thunder storms and Isolated in Cape Breton!

Teddy’s Impacts!

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

The biggest impacts will be in Cape Breton as that is where the center will track. but much of the province will see a big impact! From Yarmouth to Antigonish expect Significant Impact, This also includes Digby and Greenwood!

Then Kentville, Amherst, New Glascow, Truro will a lesser impact, but still a Moderate Impact to winds and rain, but not so much storm surge.

Teddy’s Rainfall Through Thursday Morning.

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

For Southern, Southern Shores, Annapolis Valley, Kings counties, much of Eastern Cape Breton. You will see the least amount of rain, do to the fast speed, so a wind issue rather than rain. However that is not to say you won’t get anything!! 15 to 30 mm is in the forecast, and there could be some local amounts of 30-40 mm . For Halifax, Halifax Metro, Truro, Amherst. Look at 25 to 50 mm with locally 50 to 70 mm. This is where the Flooding threat is expected. For New Glascow and and surrounding areas, 40 to as much as 75 mm! and you could have locally some amounts approaching 100 mm. Antigonish and remaining areas, look for the heaviest rain, to create severe flood risk, 75 to 125 mm of rainfall with locally some amounts approaching 125 mm.

Teddy’s Winds Through Thursday

Correction: Tues, Sept 22nd*

A wide swath of the province will see winds between 80 and 100 km/h Gusts. Cape Breton is exception, where they will see the most winds! of Winds Gusting to 110+ km/h , least winds can be found in Western sections such as East of Kentville, Truro, Kentville. winds Gusting 80 to 95 km/h which is Tropical Storm force, anything over 60 km/h is Tropical Storm force.

Teddy’s Hazards

Damaging Wind risk is fairly high! along with Severe weather and Travel can be quite Significant. Flood risk is Moderate to High and the Confidence on the forecast is a bit better now at 75-100%, which is pretty good, however still a few things needs watching that can change the system.

What to do! and How to Prepare!

The Storm is now only about 48 hours away, and with the very high likely hood of a dangerous direct impact on the province. It’s time to prepare! and Go over the Emergency Preparations

What to do before the Hurricane arrives!:

• Get water, Bread, can food that will last up to 3 days.

• Buy a Generator!

• take down old, weak large tree branches that has potential to fall down on your car or house.

• clean up near the storm drains, make sure there is plenty of room for the water to flow down.

  What to Have during the storm and what to go over:

• . A flash light

• Batteries

• Weather Radio

• canned food

• An emergency kit

• Gas ready in car

• Money

• Generator for long lasting Power Outages

You Should be going over the Hurricane kit and Emergency plan with the family.

• Go over what to do before, During & After the Hurricane or Tropical Storm.

• Have a Emergency Aid kit! and go over the items with the Family

• Have an Evacuation Hurricane Plan!! For those living near the coast, where severe flooding and beach erosion is very likely, Coastal evacuations may be needed, Go over what to do in the case of an evacuation

  AND MOST OF ALL….

• Stay Calm!!!

• Pandemic rules still apply!!

• Keep a distance of 6ft!

• Wear a Mask!!

• Wash your hands frequently!

Be Safe! and have a great Sunday Morning

• Next Update is at 4 PM