February 13, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Bus Cancellations Possible on Friday in Southwestern & Central Ontario

February 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2025/2/14/bus-cancellations

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

Snow squalls are expected to intensify late Thursday and continue into Friday, bringing hazardous winter conditions to areas near Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. These squalls will be capable of producing whiteout conditions with near-zero visibility, making travel extremely dangerous. In addition, snowfall accumulation could be rapid, leading to difficult and potentially impassable road conditions.

Environment Canada has issued snow squall warnings for several regions, highlighting the potential for snowfall totals between 20 and 40 cm by Friday afternoon. Given the expected intensity of these squalls, morning road conditions could be treacherous. As a result, school bus cancellations are highly likely in the hardest-hit areas.

The Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County are at the highest risk for bus cancellations, as these areas are expected to experience the most persistent and intense snowfall overnight. Surrounding regions will also need to keep a close eye on conditions, as the likelihood of cancellations will depend on how strong the squalls become and whether significant snowfall accumulates before the morning commute.

Please note: We are aware that some school boards have a PA day on Friday. If your school board is affected, you can disregard this forecast. However, we continue to provide these updates regardless of PA days, as not all school boards follow the same schedule.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Owen Sound & Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & South CKL)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 13, 2025

Will It Ever End? Squalls Could Bring Up to Another 40cm of Snow by the End of Friday to Parts of Southern Ontario

February 13, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Are you enjoying winter yet, Ontario? ❄️ It feels like we've been stuck in an endless cycle of snow, with relentless snow squalls hammering the snowbelt regions.

Even outside the snowbelts, much of Southern Ontario joined in this week as a major winter storm dumped over 20 cm of snow across the region overnight into Thursday morning.

And the snowy pattern isn’t letting up anytime soon. More lake effect snow is on the way to end the week, followed by a potentially significant snowstorm this weekend.

The lake effect machine is expected to fire back up Thursday evening, becoming more organized overnight into Friday morning. Current indications suggest a strong snow squall will develop, targeting the Bruce Peninsula and stretching into parts of Simcoe County.

While squall activity should begin to wind down by Friday afternoon, areas that have already been hit hard this season—such as Orillia, Midland, Wiarton, Lion’s Head, and Tobermory—could see another 15 to 25 cm of snow. If the squall locks into place for an extended period, localized totals of up to 40 cm are possible.

**HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

As of early Thursday evening, bands of lake effect snow are already forming off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These will continue to shift around throughout the evening, delivering bursts of heavy snowfall to different areas.

Right now, it looks like the heaviest snowfall will be concentrated across the Bruce Peninsula and along the southeastern Georgian Bay shoreline, including Collingwood, Barrie, Angus, and Keswick. Additional, weaker bands may impact regions east of Lake Huron, from Owen Sound to Goderich.

By midnight, models suggest that a narrow but intense squall could set up, stretching from the Bruce Peninsula, over Georgian Bay, and into Barrie. However, there’s still uncertainty about its exact strength and how stationary it will be overnight. Some models show it drifting north toward Midland and Orillia, while others keep it in place longer.

If the squall aligns just right, it could connect with both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, allowing it to tap into additional moisture. This could make it stronger than expected, potentially bringing more snow to Barrie than initially forecasted. Right now, Barrie sits right on the edge between significant snowfall and minimal accumulation.

By Friday morning, the squall will likely continue hammering the Bruce Peninsula and Simcoe County but may have shifted slightly north, putting Tobermory, Midland, and Orillia in the bullseye for heavy snow during the late morning.

Depending on its strength, the squall could even extend into portions of Durham and the Kawartha Lakes at times. This squall may remain stationary for several hours, with snowfall rates reaching 5-10 cm per hour.

It won’t take long for roads to become impassable, especially along the Highway 400 and Highway 11 corridors. Plows will struggle to keep up with such intense snowfall rates, and whiteout conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you can, stay home—this is the kind of snow that can lead to major travel disruptions and accidents.

By early Friday afternoon, the squall should gradually weaken as winds shift and become less favourable for lake effect snow.

As with any lake effect event, snowfall totals will be highly variable, depending on where these narrow snow bands set up.

The hardest-hit areas are expected to be across the Bruce Peninsula, including Tobermory, Lion’s Head, and Wiarton, extending into Simcoe County in areas like Midland, Washago, and Orillia. These regions could see 15 to 25 cm, with localized totals near 40 cm possible in central Simcoe County, closer to Georgian Bay.

Surrounding areas—including Grey-Bruce, Huron, and Perth counties east of Lake Huron—could see 5 to 15 cm, though some spots may see little to no snow due to how localized these bands are. Southern Muskoka, portions of Kawartha Lakes, and Durham Region may also receive up to 5 to 10 cm in some areas.

The rest of Southern Ontario should see less than 5 cm of snow over the next 24 hours, as the lake effect snow stays confined to the snowbelt regions.

While the lake effect snow wraps up Friday, a much bigger storm could be on the way this weekend. A potential multi-day snowfall event is on track to begin Saturday, and continue into Sunday.

Right now, there’s still uncertainty regarding snowfall totals and the exact timing of the worst conditions, but early indications suggest that much of Southern Ontario—particularly Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe—could see 20-30 cm or more by the end of the weekend.

We’re waiting on the latest model data this evening and will have a preliminary forecast on this potential snowstorm later today or early Friday. Stay tuned!

February 12, 2025

Strong Winter Storm Expected to Bring Over 30cm of Snow and Prolonged Freezing Rain to the Maritimes

February 12, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The winter storm that we’ve been tracking is bearing down on the Maritimes and things are going to be messy over the next couple of days. Not only will this storm bring significant amounts of snow to parts of New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, but there is expected to be several hours of freezing rain across Nova Scotia.

The storm will make its way into the region at around 9-10am on Thursday, with snow crossing eastward into New Brunswick from Maine and Quebec. The snow will quickly cross the province throughout the remainder of the morning, with the leading edge reaching PEI by 1-2pm.

By the early afternoon, more intense snowfall will begin to fall in New Brunswick. This heavy snow will persist for several hours across most of Central and Northern New Brunswick, at rates of 3-5cm/hr, which will rapidly result in over 30cm of snowfall accumulation by the end of the day.

Prince County, PEI can also expect some heavier snowfall beginning in the mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening, which will lead to overall accumulations of 15-30cm. The heavy snowfall will start to weaken during the evening, but light snow is expected to continue to fall overnight and through early Friday morning across Northern New Brunswick and into PEI.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 5PM AT Thursday***

Snowfall totals decrease moving southward through New Brunswick and eastward across PEI because the forecast is a bit more complicated there, along with throughout Nova Scotia. Precipitation will reach the western shores of Nova Scotia at around 10-11am Thursday, not long after it starts in New Brunswick. The leading edge of the storm will see the precipitation start off as light snow as it crosses the province, but it will very quickly transition over to freezing rain, with a brief period of ice pellets in between.

This change in precipitations types will occur as a result of warm air aloft nudging its way into the region from the south. The warmer air will spread across a wide area and will lead to pronged freezing rain over much of Nova Scotia, with upwards of 5mm of ice accretion on untreated surfaces.

Precipitation Types with temperature profiles

The depth of the layer of warm air will play a critical role in precipitation type. As the warm air tries to push further northward, the layer will become shallower and this will lead to a slightly longer period of ice pellets (also called sleet) before it eventually switches over to freezing rain.

This will be the case in Northern Nova Scotia and into Cape Breton Island, as well as with most of PEI and Southern New Brunswick. In these areas, the ice pellets will add to the prior snowfall totals before there is a short-lived period of freezing rain and therefore less ice accretion overall.

Eventually, the warm air will reach the surface and temperatures will climb above freezing, starting in Western Nova Scotia at roughly 2-3pm. This will lead to the precipitation making a final transition from freezing rain to rain for a few hours as the storm continues to cross the region.

The precipitation across the region will taper off throughout Thursday evening. As previously mentioned, some light snow is expected to continue in Northern New Brunswick and PEI overnight, however, freezing rain is also expected to last in Cape Breton into the early morning hours of Friday as well.

This storm is expected to bring some strong wind gusts to go alongside with the mixed bag of precipitation throughout the Maritimes. The gusts are expected to be the strongest across Nova Scotia, with gusts of 60-90km/h for the duration of the storm across the Mainland and over 100km/h in Northern Cape Breton. In New Brunswick and PEI, winds will be weaker, but gusts up to 60km/h are likely.

Luckily, the temperatures climbing after the freezing rain will help melt the ice buildup off of surfaces, especially from trees and power lines, ahead of stronger winds expected on Friday.

February 12, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations & School Closures for Thursday, February 13, 2025

February 12, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations and closures, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: All busses are cancelled for the City of Windsor (Area A) and the County of Essex (Area B).
HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
HamiIton Wentworth Public & Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Kawartha Pine Ridge Public & Peterborough Victoria Northumberland Clarington Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Near North Public & Nipissing-Parry Sound CathoIic: All bussed are cancelled.
Niagara Public & Niagara Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Ottawa CarIeton Public & Ottawa Catholic: All school bus/van transportation is cancelled.
PeeI Public: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Rainbow Public & Sudbury Catholic: All busses are cancelled this morning. Busses will run this afternoon for students attending school.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Toronto Public & Toronto Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Tri-Board: All busses are cancelled.
Trillium Lakelands: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Upper Canada Public & Eastern Ontario CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
WaterIoo Public & WaterIoo Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
York Public & York Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.

French Schools

Conseil des écoles publiques de l’Est de l’Ontario (CEPEO): All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Conseil scolaire de district catholique Centre-Sud: All busses are cancelled and some schools are closed. Please visit this link for more details: https://cscmonavenir.ca/ecole/
Conseil scolaire de district catholique de l'Est Ontarien (CSDCEO): All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Conseil des écoles catholiques de langue française du Centre-Est: School transportation is cancelled today for the following areas: Arnprior, Brockville, Carleton Place, Almonte, Renfrew County (schools in Pembroke), United Counties of Prescott-Russell, Kingston, Marionville, Merrickville and Kemptville, Ottawa, and Trenton
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire public du Grand Nord de l’Ontario (CSPGNO): All busses are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: All busses are cancelled and some schools are closed. Please visit this link for more details: https://infobus.francobus.ca/cancellations.aspx
Le Conseil scolaire public du Nord-Est de l’Ontario (CSPNE) & Conseil scolaire catholique Franco-Nord: All busses are cancelled.

February 12, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Thursday as Winter Storm Bears Down on Southern Ontario

February 12, 2025/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article:

LIST OF CANCELLATIONS AND CLOSURES

A significant winter storm is set to impact Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday afternoon, lasting through the night, and continuing into Thursday morning.

Environment Canada has issued widespread winter storm warnings, snowfall warnings, and freezing rain warnings across the region, signalling the potential for hazardous conditions.

With snowfall totals expected to range between 20 and 40 cm by Thursday morning across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario, road conditions will likely be extremely treacherous.

Snowfall rates could exceed 5 cm per hour at times, making it difficult for snowplows to keep up. Even though the most intense conditions will occur Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the aftermath will still pose significant challenges for travel.

Given the severity of this storm, there is a very high likelihood that school buses will be cancelled across most of Southern Ontario. In fact, the probability of widespread bus cancellations across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario is over 90%.

School closures are also a strong possibility, particularly with Environment Canada's warnings emphasizing the dangers of travel on Thursday morning. Some school boards may even choose to announce cancellations proactively tonight. We will update this article if any school boards confirm closures in advance.

In the Golden Horseshoe and Niagara region, school boards tend to be more cautious when it comes to bus cancellations and school closures, as urban areas typically have better snow-clearing operations. However, there is also a chance of mixed precipitation in these regions, which could lower snowfall totals to around 10-20 cm.

This uncertainty makes cancellations less of a guarantee compared to other parts of the province. As a result, we’ve placed the likelihood of school bus cancellations at around 75% for Halton (South), Peel (South), York, Durham (South), and KPR (Clarington).

Meanwhile, for Toronto, Hamilton, and Niagara, it’s a 50/50 call and could go either way depending on how the storm unfolds overnight.

Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, and London, also has a slightly lower probability of bus cancellations, sitting at around 75%. The system is expected to taper off earlier in these regions, and some areas could transition to rain by morning.

If that happens, conditions might improve enough for buses to operate. However, given the ongoing warnings from Environment Canada, school boards in these areas may still err on the side of caution and cancel transportation regardless.

Stay tuned for updates as the storm progresses, and check back for confirmation from school boards on closures and cancellations tonight and Thursday morning.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 11, 2025

High Impact Winter Storm on the Way for Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday With Up to 40cm of Snow & Freezing Rain

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Confidence is growing that Southern Ontario is on track for what could be the most widespread and significant winter storm of the season so far. That said, there hasn’t been much competition in that regard, as most of this winter’s snowfall has come from localized snow squalls. However, a shift in the weather pattern has placed the region in an active storm track, and Mother Nature isn’t wasting any time delivering a disruptive winter storm right in the middle of the week.

Earlier, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the system, which would have influenced snowfall amounts in different areas. However, in the past 24 hours, forecast models have begun to align on a more consistent storm track. Interestingly, the latest data supports what we initially projected, meaning there hasn’t been a major shift in the forecast.

Widespread snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm are expected from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley between Wednesday and Thursday. In the Golden Horseshoe and Deep Southwestern Ontario, precipitation will likely begin as snow, but there is potential for ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain to mix in. This could limit snowfall totals, especially along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, where temperatures may hover near the freezing mark.

For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the extent of mixing remains a key uncertainty. It could go either way. Right now, we’re forecasting 10 to 20 cm of snow, but if the mixing line stays south, snowfall amounts could surpass expectations, reaching 25 to 30 cm.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and extending into the Niagara region, models suggest several hours of freezing rain Wednesday evening and overnight. Some localized areas could see ice accretion of 2 to 5 mm, leading to slippery, untreated surfaces and hazardous road conditions.

**PRECIPITATION TYPE** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

The storm is expected to arrive Wednesday afternoon, with scattered precipitation moving into Southwestern Ontario between 2 and 4 PM. While most areas will initially see snow, some models are aggressive in bringing freezing rain into Windsor and Chatham by late afternoon.

Before the main storm arrives, lake-effect snow may develop off Lake Ontario, affecting the Burlington and Hamilton corridor Wednesday morning into early afternoon. System snow should reach the GTA just before the evening rush hour, making for a difficult commute.

The latest model data has also increased wind projections, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h in some areas. Combined with heavy snowfall, this could lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Non-essential travel should be avoided starting in the late afternoon, with conditions deteriorating further into the evening.

By mid to late evening, snow will have spread across most of Southern Ontario, including Central and Eastern Ontario. A key feature to monitor will be the movement of the mixing line.

Current data shows a freezing rain corridor stretching from Leamington through Chatham and along the Lake Erie shoreline, with a narrow band of ice pellets from Windsor through just south of London and into Hamilton.

Meanwhile, heavy snow will persist across Sarnia, London, Kitchener, and the GTA. Snowfall rates will intensify after 9–10 PM, increasing from 1–2 cm per hour to 2–4 cm per hour. This will make it challenging for snowplows to keep up.

After midnight, the mixing line may push north into parts of the GTA, bringing ice pellets and freezing rain to locations such as London, Burlington, Mississauga, and Toronto for several hours. However, this transition looks to be confined near the Lake Ontario shoreline, meaning snowfall will likely dominate farther inland.

Freezing rain will continue across Windsor and along the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara region, while heavy snow steadily blankets Central and Eastern Ontario overnight.

The system will begin its exit Thursday morning, with snow tapering off in Southwestern Ontario first. However, snow will continue across Central and Eastern Ontario.

In the Niagara region and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, mixing will remain a concern into the early morning hours. However, by 4–6 AM, colder air will push in, flipping precipitation back to snow. Any previously fallen precipitation may refreeze as temperatures drop, creating hazardous road conditions.

Expect treacherous travel conditions on Thursday morning. Roads will be slushy and icy in areas that saw mixing, while heavy snow will make roads impassable further north. Widespread school bus cancellations and school closures are likely.

Eastern Ontario will hold onto light to moderate snow through the late morning. However, models indicate some potential for mixing in the Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall areas. This could result in light icing from freezing rain before a final transition back to snow.

Most of Southern Ontario will finally see an end to precipitation Thursday, aside from some lingering lake-effect snow near Lake Huron.

Based on the latest data, the highest snowfall totals will likely be in Central and Eastern Ontario. A widespread 20–40 cm is forecast across Southwestern, Central, and Eastern Ontario. However, totals closer to 40 cm are most probable in Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, where there’s even a slight chance of locally exceeding 40–50 cm.

Central and Southwestern Ontario, including Grey-Bruce, Kitchener, York Region, Simcoe County, Muskoka, and Peterborough, will likely receive 20–30 cm, with some areas near Lake Simcoe potentially exceeding 30 cm.

The exception will be the Lake Ontario shoreline and the International border, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Lower snowfall ratios and a higher risk of mixing could keep totals below 20 cm. However, if mixing remains minimal, this area could exceed forecasts.

The snowfall forecast becomes more uncertain in Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, where multiple factors create a ‘boom or bust’ scenario. The GTA will start with heavy snow, likely reaching 10 cm fairly easily unless there’s a drastic shift in the storm track. The big question is how much more accumulates beyond that.

Some models suggest that if mixing does not occur, parts of the GTA could see 20–30 cm by Thursday morning. However, given the likelihood of overnight mixing, we expect totals to stay below 20 cm, which is why our official forecast remains at 10–20 cm.

London and Sarnia sit on the boundary between significant snow and mixed precipitation. The most probable outcome is 15–20 cm, though an overperformance remains possible.

In Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara region, snowfall amounts will be lower, with less than 10 cm expected. However, these areas will likely see prolonged freezing rain, with the heaviest ice accretion along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Models vary on how intense the freezing rain will be. Some project as much as 10 mm of ice accretion, but this seems unlikely given the presence of mixed precipitation and the relatively short duration of freezing rain. Our official forecast calls for 2–5 mm of ice accretion, though isolated pockets could see 7–10 mm if freezing rain persists longer than expected.

February 11, 2025

First Look: Major Winter Storm Set to Bring a Mixed Bag of Precipitation to the Maritimes

February 11, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Over the past few days, we’ve been monitoring the development of a major winter storm with the potential to have a significant impact in the Maritimes. In that time, the projected track of the storm has shifted back and forth, making it difficult to determine how exactly the storm would impact different parts of the region. Now that we’re less than 36 hours out, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what can be expected from this storm.

The storm will begin early Thursday morning by bringing snow into the region from the west. Currently, it appears that the entirety of the Maritimes will see at least some snow, however precipitation won’t remain as snow for the entire storm for many in the region.

There is a high risk for prolonged freezing rain across parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Southern New Brunswick as warm air is expected to flood northward throughout the day on Thursday. The freezing rain will eventually transition to rain in Nova Scotia, PEI and along the Fundy Coast in New Brunswick with the climbing temperatures, which may approach the double digits in Western Nova Scotia. The warm air should thankfully limit the impact of the freezing rain in many areas since a majority of the ice accretion should melt.

In Northern New Brunswick, on the other hand, the snow is expected to not only persist throughout the entire event, but will also be quite heavy. Early estimates are pointing at upwards of 40cm of snow here by the time the storm exits the region early Friday morning.

Exact timing, along with anticipated snowfall and freezing rain totals across the region, will be discussed in a full-length forecast that will be issued Wednesday evening so make sure to stay tuned for that.

February 11, 2025

'High' Risk for 30-40 CM of Snow for Ottawa & Parts of Ontario Wednesday to Friday Says Environment Canada

February 11, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is calling for a major winter storm to impact Ontario beginning Wednesday, bringing heavy snowfall, ice, and hazardous travel conditions across the province. The storm could arrive earlier than originally expected, affecting the Wednesday evening commute in several regions. High-impact winter weather will persist through Thursday, with lake-effect snow squalls expected to develop late Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Southwestern Ontario to areas northeast of Toronto:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
Impact: Significant impacts on rush hour traffic, snow-covered and slippery roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will move into southern Ontario earlier than initially forecast, with accumulating snowfall beginning in the afternoon. This could lead to deteriorating travel conditions during the evening rush hour, particularly in urban areas. Snowfall will continue through the night into Thursday, with additional accumulations expected.

Areas near and north of Lake Erie:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible significant rush hour disruptions, snow-covered and icy roads
Confidence: Low
Impact Severity: High

Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon but may mix with freezing rain or rain later in the evening. This transition could lead to icy surfaces, increasing travel risks into early Thursday morning. The precipitation type will depend on the storm’s exact track, which remains uncertain.

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Central and eastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Dangerous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, and transportation delays
Confidence: High
Impact Severity: High

Heavy snow, possibly exceeding 30 to 40 cm in some areas, is expected. Snowfall rates may be intense, particularly on Thursday morning, leading to significant disruptions.

Central, eastern, and northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snowfall totals of 15 to 30 cm are possible, with peak snowfall rates occurring overnight into Thursday morning.

Eastern Ontario near Lake Ontario:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, potential road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm are expected. However, areas closer to Lake Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, limiting total snowfall amounts.

Regions near and east of Lake Huron towards Peterborough:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow, possibly heavy at times, will continue through the morning, with total accumulations of 15 to 25 cm.

Southwestern Ontario towards the Greater Toronto Area:

Hazard: Snow, ice
Timing: Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
Impact: Potentially difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Snow will taper off into Thursday morning, but areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario may see a transition to freezing rain or rain, which could result in icy road conditions. Areas that remain all snow may face significant travel impacts Thursday morning.

Northeastern Ontario:

Hazard: Snow
Timing: Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

This region will be on the northern edge of the storm. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected, but if the system tracks further north, higher totals may occur. Conversely, a more southerly track would result in lower accumulations.

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Following the main winter storm, lake-effect snow squalls are expected to develop late Thursday into Friday. These squalls could produce intense snowfall rates, strong winds, and poor visibility, further impacting travel.

Southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: High

Strong lake-effect snow squalls could develop, exacerbating travel conditions, especially if significant snowfall occurs with the preceding storm.

East of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, slippery roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Localized snow squalls could develop, with rapidly changing weather conditions.

Near Lake Superior:

Hazard: Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Late Thursday into Friday
Impact: Possible difficult travel conditions, snow-covered roads
Confidence: Moderate
Impact Severity: Moderate

Lake-effect snow bands are expected to be highly variable, shifting frequently, which should help limit overall accumulations in any one area.

Key Takeaways:

A significant winter storm will impact Ontario Wednesday into Thursday, bringing heavy snow, ice, and hazardous travel conditions.

Urban areas will likely see rush hour impacts Wednesday evening due to an earlier-than-expected arrival.
Snowfall amounts could reach 30 to 40 cm in eastern Ontario, with 15 to 30 cm across much of central and northeastern Ontario.
Areas near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could see ice accumulation due to freezing rain.
Lake-effect snow squalls will follow on Friday, compounding travel challenges.

Be safe, folks! We promise that winter should end sometime around spring… 🥶

Disclaimer: These forecasts are issued by Environment Canada and typically published via their Twitter/X accounts. We receive these forecast via a daily email and often publish them for our communities to see.

February 11, 2025

Major Winter Storm on Track to Dump Up to 40cm of Snow Across Most of Southern Ontario Starting Wednesday

February 11, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Get your shovels ready, Southern Ontario! What many would consider our first true winter storm of the season is on the horizon. This moisture-laden system is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, bringing heavy snowfall across a large portion of our region.

There’s still some uncertainty in the exact track, which will determine who sees the heaviest snow, but confidence is growing that much of Southern Ontario will experience significant impacts from this storm. Travel will likely become hazardous Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and widespread school bus cancellations—and even full school closures—are almost certain on Thursday.

Based on the latest data, the heaviest snowfall is expected to stretch from Southwestern Ontario through Central Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley. Accumulations will likely range between 20 to 40 cm, with some localized pockets potentially exceeding 40 cm by the time the snow tapers off early Thursday afternoon.

The most challenging part of this forecast comes down to a narrow corridor from London through Hamilton, into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along the Lake Ontario shoreline, and into extreme Eastern Ontario along the international border. These areas are likely to start off with snow, but depending on the storm’s track, a transition to ice pellets, freezing rain, or even regular rain could occur during the evening and overnight.

The exact snowfall amounts in this corridor remain highly uncertain, as even a fraction of a degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between 5 cm and 30 cm of snow.

The risk of freezing rain also appears significant for areas in deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and communities along the Lake Erie shoreline, where several hours of ice accretion could result in hazardous road conditions and localized power outages.

The storm will begin impacting Southern Ontario on Wednesday afternoon, with the initial bands of snow spreading into deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, and London. By the mid-to-late afternoon, snow will have moved into Hamilton, Niagara, and the Greater Toronto Area, just in time for the evening commute.

Steady snowfall will continue through the dinner hour, with snowfall rates gradually increasing as the system spreads further across the region. Central and Eastern Ontario will see snow begin around the dinner hour into the early evening, while the Ottawa Valley may not see the first flakes until mid-to-late evening.

Snow will continue throughout the night across much of the region, with varying intensity. Unlike some past storms, this event isn’t expected to bring extreme snowfall rates, with accumulations of around 2 to 4 cm per hour at most. However, the prolonged nature of this storm, lasting 12 to 16 hours in many areas, will allow totals to build up significantly.

Another key factor in determining final snowfall amounts will be how far north the mixing line extends into Southern Ontario. Earlier model runs suggested a more northern track, which would allow warmer air to push into areas along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, leading to a transition from snow to ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain.

However, more recent model data from Monday evening has trended slightly further south, reducing the risk of mixing for some areas. That said, some models, including the American (NAM) and European models, still show a more northern mixing line, which could bring ice and rain into parts of deep Southwestern Ontario, London, and Hamilton.

If this occurs, Windsor and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could see several hours of freezing rain, resulting in ice buildup on untreated surfaces, power lines, and roads.

On the other hand, the Canadian (RGEM) model, along with the higher-resolution American NAM 3km model, suggest a more southern storm track, which would keep most of Southern Ontario in the snow zone.

If this scenario plays out, snowfall accumulations could be much higher in places like London, Hamilton, and the Golden Horseshoe, with totals ranging from 20 to 30 cm and minimal mixing.

Some models also indicate the possibility of mixing slightly north of Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence River, including Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall, which could lower snow totals in these areas. However, the latest data suggests this region may stay entirely on the snowy side of the system.

As the storm progresses overnight, those areas that remain on the snow side will continue to see accumulation through early Thursday morning. Snowfall rates could briefly reach 2 to 4 cm per hour in heavier bands but will likely average closer to 1 to 2 cm per hour.

Fortunately, winds won’t be particularly strong, with gusts expected to range from 20 to 40 km/h at most. While some blowing snow is possible, full-blown blizzard conditions are not expected with this storm.

By mid-morning Thursday, high-resolution models suggest a final burst of heavier snow around the Golden Horseshoe, Lake Simcoe, and Eastern Ontario. Snowfall rates could briefly spike to 4 to 6 cm per hour as the back end of the system moves through during the morning rush hour.

Travel conditions will likely be very poor on Thursday morning, and all non-essential travel should be avoided. Widespread school bus cancellations are almost a certainty given these conditions.

A rapid improvement is expected in Southwestern Ontario by late morning, with snowfall tapering off to light flurries. However, it will take time for road crews to clear the heavy snowfall, so road conditions may remain hazardous into the early afternoon.

For Central and Eastern Ontario, snow will linger into the early afternoon before finally winding down around midday for the GTA and Central Ontario and mid-afternoon for the Ottawa Valley.

By the time the storm wraps up, a broad region across Southern Ontario, including the Lake Huron shoreline, Sarnia, Kitchener, Barrie, Muskoka, Peterborough, and the Ottawa Valley, will likely see between 20 and 40 cm of fresh snow. Mixing is unlikely to be a factor in these areas, though there’s always a slight chance of a last-minute shift in the storm track.

The biggest uncertainty lies within a narrow corridor that includes London, Woodstock, Hamilton, Mississauga, Toronto, Belleville, Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. This area will likely begin with snow on Wednesday but could see ice pellets, freezing rain, or rain mix in during the late evening and overnight hours, which would reduce total snowfall amounts.

A conservative estimate for this region is at least 10 cm of snow, though some areas, particularly along the northern edge of this zone, could see totals closer to 20 to 30 cm. The current model trends lean toward a slightly more southern storm track, but we are waiting to see if this pattern holds before making final adjustments to the snowfall forecast.

For Windsor, Chatham, and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Niagara, a mix of snow and freezing rain is expected. Some locations could experience several hours of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion of 4 to 8 mm, which may cause localized power outages. However, if the mixing line remains further south, these areas could still end up seeing significant snowfall, possibly exceeding 20 cm.

The bottom line is that while we have high confidence in a significant winter storm, the local impacts will ultimately depend on the storm’s exact track, which may not become fully clear until just before the system moves in.

A more detailed forecast with refined snowfall and freezing rain estimates will be released late Tuesday as newer model data becomes available.

February 09, 2025

Impactful Winter Storm Possible Says Environment Canada For Parts of Ontario This Week With the Risk of Heavy Snow, Ice, and Dangerous Travel Conditions

February 09, 2025/ Adam Skinner

Environment Canada is forecasting a potentially impactful winter storm for parts of Ontario that could bring a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and dangerous travel conditions. Potentially hazardous winter weather could begin as early as Wednesday evening and continue into the weekend with snow squalls behind the main system. Some areas could see snowfall totals exceeding 30 cm, while others may face icy conditions due to freezing rain. Blowing snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions, power outages, and road closures. While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact track and intensity of this storm, it’s certainly worth discussing and paying attention to over the next few days.

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue through Monday, with some areas receiving an additional 30 cm. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow. Snow squalls will taper off before Tuesday morning.

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Afternoon and evening
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls south of the area may move north Monday afternoon, with local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm possible before they shift back south Monday evening. Winds will increase Monday afternoon, producing blowing snow.

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday afternoon
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, and road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: High

Details: Snow squalls will continue into Monday afternoon, with some areas receiving an additional 20 cm.

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Hazard(s): Snow
Timing: Overnight into Monday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, and possible road closures.
Confidence: Moderate
Impact: Moderate

Details: Snow squalls ongoing over the Bruce Peninsula will taper off Monday morning. Snow squalls over regions southeast of Georgian Bay will shift north Monday afternoon. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 15 cm are possible.

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will move in Wednesday evening. Snowfall could be heavy at times, with 15 to 30 cm possible. Blowing snow may reduce visibility. If the system tracks further north, areas along the north shore of Lake Ontario could see ice pellets and freezing rain instead of heavy snow. If it tracks south, snowfall amounts may be lower.

Southwestern and Central Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, reduced visibility, road closures, snow-covered and slippery surfaces.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 10 to 20 cm, with potential blowing snow reducing visibility. Snow squalls may develop behind the system Thursday afternoon, especially southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

North Shore of Lake Erie

Hazard(s): Snow, freezing rain
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday morning
Impact(s): Hazardous travel conditions, icy surfaces on roads and walkways.
Confidence: Low
Impact: High

Details: A mix of heavy snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain is possible, depending on the storm’s track. A more southern track may bring up to 15 cm of snow, while a northern track could result in more freezing rain. Forecast confidence is low, and updates will be necessary.

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Hazard(s): Snow, blowing snow
Timing: Wednesday evening into Thursday
Impact(s): Difficult travel conditions, reduced visibility, possible road closures.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: A low-pressure system will bring snowfall of 5 to 15 cm, with blowing snow reducing visibility. Track uncertainty remains high, and outlooks may change significantly.

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

Hazard(s): Extreme cold
Timing: Wednesday morning
Impact(s): Risk of hypothermia and frostbite if outside for prolonged periods without adequate protection.
Confidence: Low
Impact: Moderate

Details: Wind chill values of -40 to -45 are possible, creating dangerous conditions for exposed skin. Proper winter gear is essential.

While quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence continues to increase that parts of Ontario will experience yet another high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor for updates as this develops.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

February 09, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Southern Ontario With Bus Cancellations Possible on Monday

February 09, 2025/ Brennen Perry

The lake effect machine is set to roar back to life late Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of intense snow squalls to the snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While there is still some uncertainty regarding the strength and exact positioning of the heaviest squalls, conditions look severe enough to force school bus cancellations on Monday in the hardest-hit areas. After buses were already cancelled last Thursday and Friday, this could mark a third straight missed school day for some students.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall watches and warnings stretching from Muskoka through Simcoe County and into Grey-Bruce. Some of these alerts warn of 20 to 50 cm of snowfall by the end of Monday, with blowing snow reducing visibility and making for treacherous driving conditions. With weather this severe, it’s hard to imagine school buses being able to safely operate in these regions.

The highest probability of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula, where heavy squalls are virtually guaranteed. In Simcoe County, the likelihood of cancellations remains high, but it all depends on exactly where the squalls develop. Some areas could get buried in snow, while others may see far less accumulation, leading to possible discrepancies in cancellations across different school zones.

For Muskoka and the Kawartha Lakes, snow squall watches are in effect, but the most intense snowfall is expected to stay south and west. While these areas won’t be the primary targets of this lake effect activity, there’s still a chance of bus cancellations depending on how conditions unfold overnight.

Outside of the snowbelt regions, the rest of Southern Ontario should remain unaffected by lake-effect snow on Monday. No school bus cancellations are expected in areas beyond the direct impact zone.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West & North Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Southampton, Kincardine & Hanover)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka & North CKL)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, South CKL & Haliburton)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Durham District School Board (North)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 07, 2025

Snowy System Brings Double Digit Snowfall Accumulation to Greater Toronto Area & Southwestern Ontario This Weekend

February 07, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While many parts of Southern Ontario have been hit hard by snow squalls this winter, others have barely seen any accumulation.

The snowbelt regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay have faced relentless lake-effect snow, while areas like Deep Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and Southeastern Ontario have largely remained outside the squall zones.

The reason? This winter has been dominated by localized snow squalls rather than widespread storms. The extreme cold throughout January kept the storm track well south of the Great Lakes, shielding much of the region from major systems.

Aside from the occasional Alberta Clipper, it’s been relatively quiet. But that’s about to change as we shift into a more active storm track that places Southern Ontario directly in its path.

A moderately strong snowy system is on track to bring steady, accumulating snowfall across a wider area, including the GTA—one of the least snowy regions so far this season. Snow is expected to begin Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest accumulation occurring Saturday evening.

In fact, this system could bring Toronto its largest one-day snowfall of the season. The city’s current highest daily total sits at just 6.6 cm, recorded in early December. But with this storm, a widespread 10-15 cm of snow is looking increasingly likely, with some areas west of Lake Ontario possibly approaching 20 cm due to lake enhancement.

The first snow bands will push into Southern Ontario from the west by mid-afternoon Saturday, with flurries likely developing east of Lake Huron between 2-4 PM before spreading into the GTA around the dinner hour.

At first, the snowfall will be light, but intensity will gradually increase through the late afternoon and early evening as stronger snow bands move in. Windsor and Chatham could see some mixed precipitation, with a chance of freezing rain or drizzle before switching over to snow.

By early evening, snowfall will expand across most of Southern Ontario, bringing steady accumulation.

The heaviest snow is expected west of Lake Ontario, stretching into Kitchener and Goderich, where snowfall rates could reach 1-2 cm per hour.

**ESTIMATED WIND GUST** - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL

Winds gusting 40-50 km/h along the Lake Erie shoreline Saturday evening may not be extreme, but they could still create minor blowing snow when combined with the steady snowfall, making travel conditions tricky.

Snow will continue falling through the evening, gradually spreading toward Eastern Ontario. While Ottawa might see some light snow, accumulation should remain minimal.

The heaviest snow in Eastern Ontario will focus along the Lake Ontario shoreline, including Belleville and Kingston.

As we approach midnight, snow will begin tapering off from west to east, with Lake Huron regions clearing out first. For the GTA, heavier snow may persist a few hours past midnight before gradually weakening.

By early Sunday morning, the system will have moved out of most of Southern Ontario, with only lingering light snow possible in Eastern Ontario.

Recent model trends suggest a stronger system than initially expected, though there remains some uncertainty. Forecasts have bounced between 5-10 cm and 15-25 cm in different model runs.

The current consensus suggests a general 10-15 cm corridor extending from Lake Huron through Kitchener, the Golden Horseshoe, and into the Kingston area, with localized pockets nearing 20 cm.

For areas further north, including Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, and Brockville, as well as Sarnia and London, 5-10 cm of snow is expected.

The least snowfall will be in the Ottawa Valley, where less than 5 cm is likely. Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor and Chatham, will see the lowest totals, with 2-5 cm possible, along with the risk of freezing rain.

This will be one of the most widespread snowfalls of the season, especially for regions that have barely seen measurable snow this winter. Stay tuned for further updates as the system approaches.

February 07, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Friday, February 7, 2025

February 07, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

BIuewater Public & Bruce-Grey Catholic: There are several cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://www.mybrucegreyschoolbus.ca/Cancellations.aspx
Dufferin-PeeI Catholic: Buses to St. Andrew, St. Peter, St. Benedict and R. F. Hall are cancelled
Durham Public & Durham Catholic: Busses are cancelled in Zones 1, 2, and 3.
PeeI Public: All transportation to RF Hall SS is cancelled today due to cancellations in Dufferin County. Due to poor road conditions, STOPR is unable to service some gravel roads in rural areas, monitor https://businfo.stopr.ca/Cancellations.aspx for runs effected.
Renfrew County Public & Renfrew County Catholic: Madawaska area transportation services are cancelled
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: Busses are cancelled in the North, West, and Central Zones.
Tri-Board: There are some morning-only cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://triboard.mybusplanner.ca/Alerts
Trillium LakeIands: Busses are cancelled in Zones 1, 3, 4, & 5.
Upper Grand Public & Wellington CathoIic: Transportation services are cancelled today in Divisions 3 and 4.

French Schools

Conseil scolaire Viamonde & Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Busses are cancelled in Simcoe, Durham (Zones 1, 2 & 3), and Bruce-Grey

February 06, 2025

'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls on Friday May Give a Long Weekend to Some Students in Southern Ontario

February 06, 2025/ Brennen Perry

Snow squalls are expected to develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay tonight and continue into Friday, bringing periods of heavy snowfall and reduced visibility. Some areas could see up to 25 cm of accumulation by the time the squalls wind down.

With widespread snow squall watches and warnings in effect for Grey-Bruce, Simcoe County, and Muskoka, there is a strong possibility that school boards in these regions will cancel buses on Friday morning. Hazardous road conditions, combined with a forecast that calls for ongoing snowfall throughout the day, will likely influence their decision.

The highest likelihood of school bus cancellations will be in the Bruce Peninsula and northern Simcoe County, where the worst conditions are expected right around the time when school boards must make their morning call. Roads in these areas may be heavily snow-covered, and blowing snow could further reduce visibility, making travel unsafe for school buses.

For surrounding areas, including Barrie, Owen Sound, and southern Muskoka, the chance of bus cancellations remains uncertain. While snow squalls may impact these regions, conditions may not be severe enough for widespread cancellations. However, with a snow squall watch or warning in place, some school boards may choose to err on the side of caution.

In Eastern Ontario, snowfall accumulations will be minor compared to the snowbelt, with up to 5 cm expected overnight. However, strong wind gusts could create localized blowing snow, reducing visibility in some areas. Rural school boards, particularly Tri-Board, which has a history of being overly cautious during winter weather events, could opt to cancel buses if road crews struggle to clear snow in time for the morning commute.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely. Snow squall activity will remain highly localized to the traditional snowbelt regions, leaving most other areas unaffected by significant snowfall or travel disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Almost Certain (90–99% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Bruce Peninsula)
Simcoe County District School Board (North Zone)

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Meaford)
Simcoe County District School Board (West Zone)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Bluewater District School Board (Owen Sound & Southampton)
Simcoe County District School Board (Central Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (South Muskoka)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich)
Bluewater District School Board (Kincardine & Hanover)
STWDSTS (Dufferin)
Simcoe County District School Board (South Zone)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North CKL)
Near North District School Board (Town of Parry Sound)
Tri-Board (North Hastings, North L&A & North Frontenac)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington)
Durham District School Board (North)
Trillium Lakelands District School Board (North Muskoka, Haliburton & South CKL)
Near North District School Board (East Parry Sound)
Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board (Peterborough)
Tri-Board (Central Hastings, Central L&A & South Frontenac)
Renfrew County District School Board (All Regions)
Upper Canada District School Board

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

February 06, 2025

Last Year Was a Record-Breaking Tornado Season in Canada, According to Northern Tornadoes Project

February 06, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

The Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP), based out of Western University in London, Ontario, has just released their annual report on the 2024 tornado season. In it, the organization highlights that last year was a record-breaking year in terms of the length of the season.

Canada’s first tornado of the year was recorded in Malden Centre, Ontario on March 16th, coincidentally tying a tornado that hit Clifford, Ontario on March 16th, 2016 as the earliest recorded Ontario tornado. There were then a series of several late-season tornadoes that the NTP recorded: three individual twisters in New Brunswick on November 1st and the final tornado of the year near Fergus, Ontario on November 10th.

All told, this makes the 2024 tornado season 240 days long, over a span of nine different months. This is considerably longer than the typical season, which usually only has tornadoes in six separate months, from April to September. At this length, 2024 was the longest tornado season since at least 1980.

Another substantial finding in the report is that the 2024 tornado season was marked by the second-most tornadoes verified by the organization in a single season since their inception in 2017, with 129 tornadoes confirmed nationwide. A large spike in the total number came after the completion of the season, when the team could conduct further investigation and satellite review, which subsequently included an additional 16 tornadoes to the tally!

Most of the year’s tornadoes were rated as weak EF0s and EF1s, but the NTP did record 12 EF2 tornadoes. While this is double the amount from 2023, it is well below the 30+ recorded in both 2021 and 2022, both very active tornado seasons. Of these EF2 tornadoes, all but one (the Wolverton-Ayr tornado in Southern Ontario) occurred in forested areas of Northern Ontario and Quebec.

***The Locations of all Tornadoes from 2024 and their corresponding EF-Scale Ratings, Courtesy of the Northern Tornadoes Project.***

Geographically, Ontario was the province which was home to the most tornadoes this past season, with 50 tornadoes on land and 10 over water, which makes up almost half of all recorded tornadoes for the year. Out of the 50 tornadoes on land, 14 of them spawned during outbreaks on two individual days: June 29th had six and July 28th had eight. Quebec was the second-most active province, with 21 total tornadoes (four of which occurred over water), followed by Saskatchewan with 19.

At Instant Weather, we are a proud partner of the Northern Tornadoes Project. We developed our custom radar suite, Instant Weather Pro, in conjunction with the organization and the many weather reports from you, our community, help them in their mission.

For the upcoming 2025 season, the Northern Tornadoes Project team sounds excited to continue their work alongside the Northern Hail Project and the newly-founded Northern Mesonet Project. You can learn more about them at the Northern Tornadoes Project homepage and for more information regarding the report, you can find it here.

February 06, 2025

Snow Squalls to End Off the Week in Parts of Southern Ontario With Up to 25cm of Snow Possible by Friday

February 06, 2025/ Brennen Perry

While we’ve had a break from snow squall activity over the past week, they are expected to return as we close out the week, bringing another round of lake-effect snow to areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

As the system that brought a messy mix of wintry weather moves out, colder air will briefly settle into Southern Ontario. This drop in temperature, combined with strong westerly to northwesterly winds blowing over the still mostly ice-free lakes, will create the perfect conditions for snow squall development.

Overnight Thursday, shifting winds will likely trigger several narrow bands of heavy snow that will sweep across Southern Ontario before becoming more organized over Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

While these bands won’t last long—most areas will only see snow for 15 to 30 minutes—they could still create hazardous driving conditions. Strong wind gusts of 70-80 km/h will cause blowing snow, significantly reducing visibility on the roads.

However, for regions within the snowbelt, which have already been hit hard by squalls in recent weeks, this could be another significant snowfall event. Parts of Grey-Bruce and Simcoe County may see totals reaching 15 to 25 cm in the hardest-hit communities by the end of Friday.

More organized squalls are likely to develop early Friday morning, targeting the Bruce Peninsula and extending into Simcoe County. This narrow but intense band will likely persist throughout much of the day, though it may shift somewhat as winds fluctuate.

Current model data indicates that the heaviest snow will remain focused within the Wiarton-to-Owen Sound corridor in Grey-Bruce and between Orillia and Barrie in Simcoe County. At times, the squall could extend further inland, bringing periods of heavy snow to parts of Kawartha Lakes, Durham, and Peterborough during the morning and afternoon.

By Friday evening, a shift in wind direction will bring a few hours of intense snowfall to parts of Southern Muskoka, including MacTier, Port Carling, Bala, Gravenhurst, and Bracebridge. However, this squall is expected to weaken quickly after midnight as winds subside.

With the snow band moving around throughout the day, widespread extreme accumulations are less likely, but it will allow more regions to see bursts of heavy snowfall at different times.

We’re expecting total snowfall accumulations of 15 to 25 cm across the central Bruce Peninsula, including Wiarton and Lion’s Head, extending into most of Simcoe County.

The City of Barrie is expected to avoid the worst of the snowfall, but if the squall sinks slightly farther south for a few hours, the city could still see around 10-15 cm of accumulation.

For the rest of Grey-Bruce, including Owen Sound, Hanover, and Collingwood, as well as Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, and Peterborough, snowfall totals will generally range between 5 to 10 cm, though some localized pockets may receive up to 15 cm.

Outside of the snowbelt, snowfall will be minimal, with 2-5 cm expected across the rest of Central Ontario and less than 2 cm for Eastern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe.

Deep Southwestern Ontario will likely remain snow-free from this round of lake-effect snow.

After the snow squalls, attention will turn to Saturday night, which, at one point, looked like it could bring Southern Ontario its strongest winter storm of the season. However, recent model data now suggests that much of the system’s moisture may stay south of the border, shifting into the U.S. Northeast instead.

If this trend continues, instead of widespread snowfall totals of 10-20 cm, most of Southern Ontario could see just 5 to 10 cm—and even that might be on the high end.

For those hoping for a big winter storm, it looks like luck isn’t on your side this time. That said, we’re still in an active storm track, and the next few weeks will bring more chances for Southern Ontario to get hit with a classic winter storm.

February 06, 2025

Southern Ontario: School Bus Cancellations for Thursday, February 6, 2025

February 06, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

Please refresh your page every few minutes to receive the latest update

Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

Please note: School board boundaries are a rough estimate. Don’t use this map to determine what school board or weather zone you live in as accuracy isn’t guaranteed.

Green = No Cancellations
Red = Cancellations (Click for More Details)
Purple = School Closures (Click for More Details)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

Avon MaitIand Public & Huron-Perth CathoIic: There are several cancellations, please visit this link for more details: https://geoquery.hpsts.ca/Alerts
Grand Erie Public & Brant HaIdimand Norfolk Catholic: Busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Greater Essex Public & Windsor Essex CathoIic: Area A - City of Windsor - All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the day. Area B - County of Essex - All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the day.
HaIton Public & Halton Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
HamiIton Wentworth Public & Catholic: There are many cancellations. Please visit this link for more details: https://hamiltonschoolbus.ca/delays.aspx
Lambton Kent Public & St. CIair Catholic: All busses are cancelled.
Niagara Public & Niagara Catholic: All busses are cancelled and schools are closed.
Simcoe County Public & Simcoe Catholic: All busses are cancelled for Simcoe County.
Thames Valley Public & London CathoIic: School purpose vehicles are CANCELLED for the day in MIDDLESEX, OXFORD, ELGIN Counties, & Red Zone due to freezing rain & icy road conditions.
Tri-Board: Due to the risk of freezing drizzle this afternoon school bus transportation is cancelled in Tri-Board Student Transportation Services central and northern weather zones today.

French Schools

Conseil scolaire de district catholique Centre-Sud: Disruption to school transport and/or the opening of certain schools in the following regions: Norfolk & Brant
Conseil scolaire catholique Providence: Area A - City of Windsor - All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the day. Area B - County of Essex - All Board Provided Transportation is Cancelled for the day. Busses in Hamilton, Halton, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Niagara, Simcoe, Middlesex, and Oxford are cancelled.
Conseil scolaire Viamonde: Busses in Hamilton, Halton, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Niagara, Simcoe, Middlesex, and Oxford are cancelled.

February 05, 2025

Incoming Storm's Shift Expected to Keep Heaviest Snow Out of the Maritimes, Widespread 5-10cm By Friday Afternoon

February 05, 2025/ Alannah Campbell

For the past several days, we’ve been tracking the development of a winter storm, with a considerable freezing rain component, set to impact the Maritimes later in the week.

Thankfully, the projected track of the storm has taken a southward shift, ahead of the storm’s development Wednesday afternoon. This will keep the heaviest precipitation from the storm, expected to fall mostly as snow, away from the Maritimes as it approaches the region on Thursday.

***Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 3PM AT Thursday***

The leading edge of the snow will arrive in Western Nova Scotia and Southwest New Brunswick in the mid-afternoon Thursday, shortly after 3pm. It will cross the region fairly quickly, reaching Prince Edward Island in the evening, around 7-8pm and Cape Breton Island by 9pm.

Some heavier snow is anticipated to move into Western Nova Scotia in the early evening and this area can expect to be on the top end of the 5-10cm range, with local amounts even exceeding 10cm.

While this snowfall is crossing the Maritimes, warm air will surge northward into Nova Scotia. This will bring temperatures above freezing and result in a transition from snow to rain in Western Nova Scotia around 9pm, with a brief period of freezing rain or ice pellets in between. The temperature will also rise along the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick, but whether or not the transition to rain occurs here is questionable.

Some weather models show more of this freezing precipitation falling than others, but regardless, it shouldn’t amount to much. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing with the transition to rain, melting any ice buildup that might occur.

Model Image showing the location and intensity of snow (Blue), Rain (Green), Freezing rain (Pink), and Ice pellets (Orange) at 8PM AT Thursday. Note: this particular model does not cover the entire maritimes.

As the system pushes northeastward across the Maritimes, the snow-to-rain transition will also cross Nova Scotia. The rain won’t last long, though, as the precipitation will start to exit the region beginning around 9-11pm.

All precipitation is expended to be finished by around sunrise on Friday, after a widespread 5-10cm of snow falls across most of the region. Lesser amounts will be measurable in Nova Scotia following the increase in temperatures and the rain melting what had previously fallen.

Strong winds aren’t expected to be much of a concern with this system. The winds will pick up Thursday evening, leading to gusts of up to 70km/h across Nova Scotia, PEI and Southern New Brunswick overnight and into Friday morning. The western edge of the Cape Breton Highlands, however, could see gusts in excess of 100km/h for a few hours Friday morning before dying down ahead of sunrise.

Looking ahead, we have our eye on another storm that could impact the Maritimes on Sunday and we will have more details on that in the coming days.

February 05, 2025

Significant Winter Storm For Parts of Ontario Possible This Weekend Says Environment Canada

February 05, 2025/ Adam Skinner

A prolonged and dynamic winter storm is set to impact Ontario beginning Thursday, bringing a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, freezing rain, and hazardous travel conditions across multiple regions. Confidence remains high that this system will bring significant impacts, but uncertainty exists regarding the precise track and intensity of each hazard. Here’s what to expect:

Thursday, February 6, 2025

East of Lake Superior
A powerful winter storm will bring heavy snowfall, strong winds, and widespread blowing snow, making travel extremely hazardous. Whiteout conditions are possible, particularly in open areas.

Wind gusts up to 90 km/h, especially near Lake Superior
Widespread snowfall with lake effect snow contributing to accumulations up to 20 cm
Power outages likely due to strong winds and heavy snow
Winds should ease late Thursday night into Friday morning

Manitoulin Island, Grey/Bruce Region, and East of Georgian Bay
Strong winds and blowing snow will create dangerous conditions across these regions Thursday evening, with near-zero visibility in exposed areas.

Wind gusts up to 90 km/h possible near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay
Loose snow and strong winds will result in blowing snow and whiteout conditions
Winds will ease Thursday night into Friday

North of Lake Superior
A strong snow system will move in during the morning and afternoon, leading to difficult travel conditions.

Snowfall amounts up to 15 cm
Local blowing snow may further reduce visibility

Northern and Far Northern Ontario
Snow and blowing snow will create hazardous conditions early Thursday morning, with worsening visibility in the afternoon as winds increase.

Snowfall amounts up to 10 cm
Wind gusts up to 60 km/h will lead to blowing and drifting snow, making travel difficult

Southwestern Ontario and the Greater Golden Horseshoe
A wintry mix of freezing rain and freezing drizzle could create slippery conditions overnight Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

Areas around Windsor are at the highest risk of accumulating freezing rain
Icing may also occur across much of southern Ontario due to freezing drizzle mixed with snow
Roads and sidewalks could become extremely slick before temperatures rise above freezing later in the day

Northern, Central, and Eastern Ontario
A broad swath of snow will move through these regions overnight Wednesday into Thursday, leading to travel disruptions.

Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm expected

Friday, February 7, 2025

Areas Southeast of Lake Superior
Lake effect snow squalls will take hold Thursday night and persist into Friday night, producing locally heavy snowfall and whiteout conditions.

Snow accumulations of 15 to 25 cm possible
Wind gusts up to 70 km/h will create blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility, especially Friday morning
Road closures may occur in some areas

Bruce Peninsula and Areas Southeast of Georgian Bay
Similar to regions southeast of Lake Superior, lake effect snow squalls will develop early Friday and continue into the evening.

Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 20 cm possible
Winds gusting to 70 km/h will result in blowing snow and travel disruptions

Southern Ontario from Goderich to Oshawa
Brief but intense snow squalls combined with strong winds may create periods of dangerous driving conditions overnight Thursday into early Friday.

Winds gusting to 70 km/h could cause visibility to drop suddenly in blowing snow
Conditions should improve by Friday morning

Prince Edward County
Strong winds will sweep through Friday morning, potentially causing minor damage and tossing unsecured objects.

Wind gusts up to 80 km/h expected

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Southern Ontario
A new low-pressure system is expected to move into the region Saturday afternoon, bringing additional snowfall that will persist into Sunday morning.

Snowfall amounts near 5 cm Saturday evening, with more possible Sunday
Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and track of this system

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Southern Ontario West of Oshawa
The storm system from Saturday will continue into Sunday, bringing a second round of snowfall.

Another 5 to 10 cm of snow is expected Sunday morning
Total snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible
Difficult travel conditions anticipated

Southern Ontario North of Lake Ontario
A winter system will deliver a widespread snowfall event beginning Saturday evening and lasting into Sunday morning.

Snowfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm possible
Uncertainty remains regarding the track, which may impact snowfall amounts

While some uncertainties remain regarding the exact intensity and placement of snowfall, wind gusts, and freezing rain, confidence is increasing that Ontario will experience a prolonged and high-impact winter event. Those with travel plans should closely monitor forecasts, as conditions may deteriorate quickly.

We’ll continue to provide updates as more details become available. Stay safe and stay prepared!

February 05, 2025

'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Likely to Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southwestern Ontario on Thursday

February 05, 2025/ Brennen Perry

A messy mix of wintry weather is set to move into Southern Ontario early Thursday morning, bringing a mix of snow and freezing rain depending on location. The exact impacts will vary widely across the region, with mainly light snow expected in Central and Eastern Ontario, while areas further south, particularly in Southwestern Ontario, face a higher risk of prolonged freezing rain.

Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Rain Warning for Windsor and Chatham, indicating hazardous travel conditions in these areas. With freezing rain expected to be falling right during the morning bus run, there is a strong likelihood of school bus cancellations in these regions.

The probability of cancellations decreases significantly as you move further north, where freezing rain is less of a concern. Instead, a mix of snow and ice pellets is expected, but accumulation may not be enough to meet the threshold for widespread bus cancellations.

That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. As a result, we’ve assigned a very low chance of school bus cancellations across Central and Eastern Ontario. There remains a small possibility that a few isolated school boards may decide to cancel buses, particularly if Environment Canada issues a Winter Weather Travel Advisory or other alert overnight.

One key factor is that most of the snowfall accumulation will occur after school bus decisions are made early in the morning. This makes proactive cancellations less likely, especially since projected snowfall totals are expected to remain in the 5 to 10 cm range. Unless conditions deteriorate more than currently forecast, school boards will likely proceed as usual.

Here is a breakdown of the likelihood of school bus cancellations by region:

Likely (75–90% Chance)

Greater Essex County District School Board
Lambton Kent District School Board (Chatham)

Possible (50–75% Chance)

Lambton Kent District School Board (Sarnia & Lambton)
Thames Valley District School Board (Middlesex & Elgin)

Maybe (25–50% Chance)

Thames Valley District School Board (City of London & Oxford)
Avon Maitland District School Board (Exeter & Stratford)
Grand Erie District School Board
District School Board of Niagara (South)

Unlikely (10–25% Chance)

Avon Maitland District School Board (Goderich & Listowel)
STWDSTS (Wellington & Dufferin)
Waterloo Region District School Board
Peel District School Board (North)
Halton District School Board (North)
District School Board of Niagara (North)

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations is less than 10%.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

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Wednesday, February 12, 2025: Winter Storm Begins

Thursday, February 13, 2025: Heavy Snow and Travel Disruptions

Friday, February 14, 2025: Lake-Effect Snow Squalls Develop

Key Takeaways:

Monday, February 10, 2025

Sault Ste. Marie North to Montreal River Harbour

Agawa – Lake Superior Park

Regions Southeast of Georgian Bay

The Bruce Peninsula and Areas East of Georgian Bay

Wednesday, February 12 (evening) – Thursday, February 13, 2025

Greater Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario

Southwestern and Central Ontario

North Shore of Lake Erie

Bruce Peninsula and Portions of Central & Northeastern Ontario

Far Northern Ontario (Along Hudson Bay & Manitoba Border)

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

French Schools

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Cancellation & Closure Map (English Public and Catholic Schools)

List of Cancellations & Closures

English Public and Catholic Schools

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Thursday, February 6, 2025

Friday, February 7, 2025

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Sunday, February 9, 2025

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